France raised its forecast for the 2026 wine harvest on Friday, November 6, after better-than-expected yields in several key regions.
The revision puts national production slightly above the 2025 crop, where the previous estimate had it below.
A 1.8 million hectoliter upgrade
Agreste, the statistical service of the Agriculture Ministry, estimated 2026 production at 36.7 million hectoliters as of November 1, up from 34.9 million in its October 1 estimate. The increase of 1.8 million hectoliters is a 5.2% upward revision. A hectoliter equals 100 liters.
The change reverses the year-over-year comparison. In October, the ministry placed the 2026 harvest 2% below 2025. It now puts it 3% above. The harvest is still expected to remain 10% below the 2021-2025 average, though that is an improvement on the 14% shortfall projected a month earlier.
South and west drive the improvement
The ministry attributed the higher forecast mainly to stronger-than-expected yields in Languedoc-Roussillon in the south and in Charentes in the west. Together, the two areas account for about half of French wine production. Estimates also improved in Champagne and in the southeast.
Languedoc-Roussillon is now expected to produce 25% more than in the weak 2025 harvest, against a 20% increase projected in October. Compared with the 2021-2025 average, the region is seen 6% above normal, up from 2% in the earlier estimate. The revision suggests that late-season conditions in the south helped limit the damage from dry weather and heat.
A sharp regional divide
The southern recovery has not lifted the whole country back to recent average levels, and it has not offset heavy weakness in the north.
- Champagne: The forecast was revised higher, but output is still expected to be 38% below 2025. Agreste said frost, hail, drought and summer heat hurt the region.
- Burgundy-Beaujolais: Production is forecast to fall 22% from 2025.
- Loire Valley: A decline of 7% is expected.
- Alsace: Also projected below last year’s level.
Other regions are set to gain from the low base of 2025:
- Bordeaux: Up 10% from 2025, but still 11% below the five-year average.
- Southwest: Up 15% from 2025.
- Southeast: Up 7%.
Fewer vines, smaller harvests
Agreste said the 2026 harvest was shaped not only by weather but also by a smaller vineyard area. France has been reducing vine acreage through state-backed uprooting plans meant to address oversupply and support prices in a market weighed down by weaker demand and changing consumption habits. The current program covers 27,000 hectares and is expected to bring total vineyard area to about 740,000 hectares, down from close to 800,000 five years earlier.
What the numbers do and don’t mean
The figures are harvest estimates, not final declarations, and they do not measure the volume that will eventually reach the market. In Champagne especially, the number of bottles sold depends on decisions by the region’s industry bodies as well as on production and demand.
Even so, the November revision marks a notable shift in the outlook for France, the world’s second-largest wine producer after Italy. A month ago, the government expected 2026 to fall short of an already weak 2025. It now expects a modest increase, even though national output remains well below the recent norm and large parts of the country, particularly Champagne and other northern vineyards, continue to face severe losses.
Source: Vinetur