The global wine market is undergoing a profound transformation.
Speaking at the 79th Assoenologi Congress in Conegliano, Denis Pantini, Head of Nomisma Wine Monitor, highlighted how shifting consumption patterns and changing trade dynamics are reshaping the future of Italian wine exports.
After decades of growth that culminated in 2017, global wine consumption and imports have entered a period of decline. By 2025, worldwide wine consumption had fallen to 208 million hectoliters, while imports declined to 110 million hectoliters. Traditional wine-drinking regions such as Europe and China have recorded significant reductions in consumption, forcing producers to rethink their export strategies.
Traditional Markets Slow While Emerging Regions Expand
Europe remains the largest wine-consuming region, but consumption has fallen by 18% over the past two decades. China has also experienced a dramatic slowdown, significantly impacting Asian demand. In contrast, markets across Africa, Oceania, and parts of the Americas continue to show positive growth.
The United States remains the world's largest wine market, consuming more than 33 million hectoliters annually. However, recent declines in consumption have created concerns among producers. Despite this slowdown, imported wines continue to maintain their market share, accounting for nearly 40% of total U.S. wine sales. Italian producers therefore still have opportunities to strengthen their position, even as domestic American wineries face increasing pressure.
Italy Performs Better Than Many Competitors
Although Italian wine exports are expected to decline from EUR 8 billion in 2024 to approximately EUR 7.8 billion in 2025, Italy has proven more resilient than many competing wine-producing nations.
France, Spain, Australia, and especially the United States have all experienced sharper export declines. Australia has struggled following the reopening of the Chinese market, while American wine exports have been heavily impacted by trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs.
Several key export destinations continue to perform relatively well for Italian wines. Germany, Canada, and Brazil have all shown stronger demand for Italian products compared to the overall wine import market.
Emerging Markets Could Drive Future Growth
Pantini emphasized that Italy exports only around 40-45% of its wine production, leaving considerable room for expansion. Emerging markets are becoming increasingly important as traditional destinations mature.
Countries such as Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Thailand, Mexico, and Colombia are attracting attention due to their growing economies, expanding middle classes, and rising interest in imported wines.
The recent trade agreements between the European Union and Mercosur countries could further boost Italian wine exports. Brazil, already an important market for Tuscan wines, offers significant long-term potential as tariffs gradually disappear.
India also represents a strategic opportunity. Although wine consumption remains relatively low, its large population and growing interest in premium imported wines, particularly Prosecco, make it an attractive market for future expansion.
Prosecco and Premium Wines Remain Key Drivers
While Prosecco experienced a slight decline in export value during 2025, volumes continued to grow. At the same time, Piedmont red wines, Sicilian white wines, and Tuscan PDO white wines delivered strong performances.
These trends suggest that consumers remain willing to purchase quality wines, but are becoming increasingly price-sensitive. Producers must therefore balance premium positioning with competitive pricing to maintain market share.
A New Era for Italian Wine
The future of Italian wine will depend on diversification, innovation, and market expansion. While traditional markets remain important, the industry's long-term growth increasingly depends on reaching new consumers across emerging economies and adapting to evolving drinking habits worldwide.
Source: WineNews