The outlook for France’s wine industry in 2025—and for agriculture more broadly—is marked by deep uncertainty.
According to the BPCE Observatory on Agriculture and Viticulture, edition no. 4, published after surveying 1,206 agricultural managers (including 500 winemakers) between February 12 and March 18, 2025, the mood is overwhelmingly pessimistic.
A Bleak Economic Outlook for Winemakers
For wine producers, the figures are stark:
- 53% expect a decline in turnover.
- 62% foresee a decline in profits.
These expectations already reflected concerns before the official announcement of U.S. tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump in April 2025 (10%) and increased in August to 15% on EU products, including wine. The tariffs are likely to amplify winemakers’ anxieties, given the importance of export markets for French viticulture.
By comparison, farmers in general appear less pessimistic:
- 37% expect turnover to decline, while 17% anticipate growth.
- 44% foresee reduced profitability, while 11% expect improvement.
Climate Change: A Growing Concern
Winemakers stand out as the agricultural group most concerned about climate change:
- 77% believe it will have a significant impact on production (versus 66% of all farmers).
- Two-thirds of winemakers have already adapted their business practices in response (compared to 50% of farmers overall).
Adaptation is visible in both vineyard management and ecological commitment. Among wine producers:
- Controlled grassing (78%),
- Canopy management (60%),
-
Meteorological sensors (53%)
are the most widely adopted techniques.
French viticulture is also among the leaders in agroecology (77%), second only to horticulture, and has seen a sharp rise (+12 percentage points since 2023). Organic farming is expanding as well, with 26% of wine producers engaged in organic practices.
Investments, Farm Models, and the Future of Agriculture
The study highlights a broader transformation of French agriculture. In 2024, the sector generated EUR 89 billion in production value, ahead of Germany and Italy (EUR 75 billion each). But production fell in both 2023 and 2024, with wine output plummeting by -21.7%, one of the steepest declines across agricultural products.
Despite these difficulties, investment intentions remain robust:
- 20% of farmers plan to buy or lease new land or vineyards (up from 17% in 2023).
- 39% aim to expand or modernize buildings within two years (up from 23% in 2023).
Solar energy also emerges as the most attractive diversification opportunity, with 28% of farms showing interest, rising to 44% among larger holdings.
Yet structural challenges loom. Half of all French farmers could retire within the next decade, and for nearly 60% of those aged 55 and over, succession is uncertain. Cash flow management (19%) and health care access (16%) are additional concerns.
A Sector at a Crossroads
After two years of growth in 2021 and 2022, French agricultural production contracted significantly in 2023 and 2024. The 7.5% decline in agricultural output in 2024 shaved 0.2 percentage points off French GDP growth. While all sectors suffered, wine was hit particularly hard by unfavorable weather conditions—excessive rainfall and lack of sunshine—compounding economic and political headwinds.
The French wine industry, historically one of the country’s proudest exports, is now navigating a perfect storm of falling consumption, trade barriers, climate stress, and generational renewal challenges. Whether winemakers can adapt successfully will depend on innovation, sustainability, and the sector’s ability to redefine its business model in a changing world.
Source: WineNews