The global wine industry is holding its breath, waiting for what many hope will be a decisive move—ideally the elimination of tariffs on European Union products, including wine.
However, as of today, a 15% tariff officially takes effect on all EU imports to the United States, dashing immediate hopes for a zero-tariff agreement. This shift adds tension to an already fragile trade landscape and throws further uncertainty on the future of global wine flows.
The United States: The Market That Moves the Needle
As one of the world’s largest wine consumers and importers, the U.S. has the power to shape the fate of the global wine economy. But as it turns inward and trade tensions escalate, especially with key partners like Canada, the United Kingdom, and China, the cracks in the performance of U.S.-made wine are becoming more visible.
In 2024, Canada was the top export destination for U.S. wines, accounting for USD 423 million in sales. But according to the American Association of Wine Economists (AAWE), in June 2025, exports to Canada plummeted by 96.8% compared to June 2024—a staggering drop of USD 31.1 million. The U.K. also recorded a 35.9% decrease (USD 6.2 million), and even China saw a dip of 6.1% (USD 286,000).
Some bright spots include Japan, where U.S. wine exports rose 12.6% (USD 910,000), and South Korea, with a 43.4% surge (USD 1.8 million). Still, these gains were not enough to offset broader losses. In total, U.S. wine exports fell by USD 38.8 million in June 2025, a 37% year-on-year decline.
A Trade Balance Deep in the Red
The picture becomes even more alarming when viewed over a longer timeline. In 1992, the U.S. wine trade deficit was USD 915 million. Fast forward to 2024, and that figure has ballooned to USD 5.8 billion, up from USD 5.4 billion in 2023. Even in 2014, the deficit stood at USD 3.9 billion, illustrating a consistent downward trajectory with only a few exceptional vintages breaking the trend.
This worsening trade imbalance underscores not just a struggle to expand exports, but also the strength of imports and growing foreign competition on U.S. shelves.
The Evolving American Palate
Beyond trade, the American wine consumer has changed dramatically over the decades. According to AAWE:
- In 1960, 75.6% of wine consumption in the U.S. was made up of fortified and dessert wines.
- By 2023, that number dropped to just 2.2%.
- Still wines have surged, rising from 19.2% in 1960 to 88.2% in 2023.
- Sparkling wines, while still a smaller segment, grew from 1.4% to 7.6% of total consumption.
- “Wine coolers,” RTDs, and wine-based beverages have appeared on the scene, though remain marginal at 1.7%.
- Vermouths, once a staple, have nearly vanished from consumer preference.
This evolution, particularly between 1960 and 1980, reflects deeper cultural and generational shifts, as Americans moved away from traditional sweet wines toward drier, more complex varietals, aligning more with European preferences.
Outlook: A Market at a Crossroads
The combination of tariff uncertainty, a declining export market, and a shifting domestic landscape places the U.S. wine industry at a pivotal moment. The 15% tariff on EU wines, now active, could trigger retaliatory measures or further complicate relationships with key trade partners.
Meanwhile, domestic producers must grapple not only with export declines, but also with a rapidly changing consumer base that increasingly demands diversity, sustainability, and innovation in wine offerings.
Industry leaders are watching closely for any signal from Washington that could reverse or ease trade restrictions. Until then, U.S. wine remains caught in a challenging mix of global politics and evolving local preferences, with its future hanging delicately in the balance.
Source: WineNews