As the clock ticks toward the July 9 deadline for the possible reintroduction of suspended tariffs, tension is mounting across global markets—none more so than the Italian wine sector, a critical player in US–EU agri-food trade.
The announcement made by the U.S. President Donald Trump via his Truth Social account—declaring that “there will be no exceptions” and the first tariff letters will be delivered today—has sent shockwaves through Europe’s leading wine-producing country.
Italy, whose wines dominate the American shelves with labels like Prosecco, Chianti, Pinot Grigio, and Moscato d’Asti, stands to lose the most if tariffs are applied to nations perceived as “aligned” with the BRICS bloc. The uncertainty stems from a policy pivot linked to broader geopolitical realignments and an increasingly protectionist stance from Washington.
Duties Looming Over Wine and Agri-Food Exports
The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, confirmed that if no agreement is reached in the coming days, the new tariff regime will take effect on August 1, escalating tensions with the European Union. The first stage, expected to apply additional 10% duties, could be just the beginning.
A study by Centromarca, conducted in partnership with Nomisma and recently highlighted by WineNews, sheds light on the potential financial hit. Depending on the rate applied, the impact on Italian exports (food and non-food) to the U.S. could range from:
- 10% tariffs → Loss of EUR 489 million
- 20% tariffs → Loss of EUR 1.067 billion
- 30% tariffs → Loss of EUR 1.734 billion
- 40% tariffs → Loss of EUR 2.489 billion
- 50% tariffs → Loss of EUR 3.334 billion
The euro/dollar exchange rate, currently unfavorable, is expected to amplify the damage, further eroding price competitiveness.
Sector Leaders: “A 20% Tariff Would Be Devastating”
Giacomo Ponti, president of Federvini, warns that for many small and medium-sized Italian wineries, particularly those relying on the U.S. for over 50% of their turnover, even a 10% tariff would be burdensome. But a 20% increase could be “devastating,” pushing iconic Italian wines off U.S. shelves after decades of effort to establish a foothold in the market.
Ponti fears a significant setback in both commercial presence and cultural recognition, especially for labels that have become synonymous with quality and Italian identity abroad.
Ettore Prandini, president of Coldiretti, reinforced this concern during a recent forum in Manduria, stating that a 10% tariff, while challenging, remains “manageable.” However, 17% or more would be “unsustainable,” threatening Italy’s competitiveness and possibly igniting a dangerous trade war.
The Need for a Unified EU Response
As tensions rise between Brussels and Washington, Prandini emphasized the urgency for the European Union to act decisively, both in negotiations and in deploying protective measures for the agri-food sector. He warned against retaliatory measures, advocating instead for strategic diplomacy and investment in international promotion.
Coldiretti has called upon the Italian government to increase support for the internationalization and promotion of Made in Italy agri-food products, particularly in key export markets like the United States and Asia. “The answer,” Prandini concludes, “must be a strong, strategic investment in the global visibility and protection of Italian excellence.”
Uncertainty Dominates, but Strategy is Key
With just days left before the July 9 milestone, and the possibility of up to 50% tariffs looming, the Italian wine sector is staring down one of its greatest trade policy threats in years. Stakeholders across the value chain—producers, exporters, and policymakers—are being urged to prepare for various scenarios and adapt quickly.
While Italian wine exports to the U.S. have long been a pillar of international success, their future now hangs in the balance, caught between shifting global alliances and an unpredictable tariff regime. What’s clear is that resilience, unity, and strategic vision will be essential to weather the storm.
Source: WineNews