Top Italian Wine Producers Forecast Positive Growth in 2024

The major Italian wine producers are optimistic about 2024, projecting overall sales growth of 2.6% and a 3% increase in exports.

This confidence is driven largely by the continued strong performance of sparkling wines, expected to see a 3.7% rise in overall revenues and a notable 6.8% increase in exports.

Still wines are also forecasted to perform well, with a 2.3% growth in overall sales and a 2.2% increase in exports. 

Reflecting on 2023 Performance

The year 2023 ended relatively stable for Italian wine producers, with overall sales showing a marginal decline of 0.2% compared to 2022. The domestic market saw a slight downturn of 0.7%, while the foreign market experienced a modest growth of 0.3%, buoyed by the solid performance of sparkling wines, which grew by 2.5%. Despite these fluctuations, the EBIT margin increased by 1.4% compared to 2022, resulting in a net profit-to-turnover ratio of 4.2%.

However, the quantity of wine sold across all channels decreased by 4.5%, with inflation impacting the purchasing power of families and penalizing mid-range wines, which saw a 10.1% decline compared to 2022. The market showed a greater polarization, with slight declines in low-end wines (down 1.7%, holding a 44.2% market share) and significant growth in premium wines (up 12.7%, with an 18.6% market share) and sustainable wines (organic wines up 1.4%, holding a 5.4% market share; vegan wines up 9.6%, holding a 2.7% market share; natural wines up 1.8%, holding a 1% market share). 

Performance of Leading Italian Wine Companies

The Survey on the Wine Sector in Italy by the Mediobanca Research Area, which analyzed 253 major Italian joint-stock companies with a 2022 turnover exceeding EUR 20 million, provides a detailed look at the industry's performance. These companies, which represent 88.4% of the sector's national turnover, generated aggregate revenues of EUR 11.8 billion.

Top Wine Company Performers in 2023:

1. Cantine Riunite-Civ: Maintained sales leadership with a turnover of EUR 670.6 million, despite a 3.4% decline compared to 2022.
2. Argea Wine Hub: Ranked second with EUR 449.5 million in turnover, down 1.2%.
3. Iwb-Italian Wine Brands: Third place with EUR 429.1 million, a slight decline of 0.3%.
4. Caviro: Recorded a turnover of EUR 423.1 million, up 1.4% on 2022.

Companies with Revenues between EUR 200 and 300 million:

• Cavit: EUR 267.1 million, up 0.9%.
• Santa Margherita: EUR 255.4 million, down 2%.
• Antinori: EUR 250.3 million, up 1.9%.
• La Marca: EUR 225.8 million, down 4%.
• Fratelli Martini: EUR 219.6 million, up 1.1%.
• Mezzacorona: EUR 217.7 million, up 2%.
• Collis Group: EUR 209.4 million, up 64.8%.

Profitability:

• Frescobaldi: Leading in profitability with a net profit-to-turnover ratio of 29%.
• Santa Margherita: Second with 18.5%.
• Antinori: Third with 17%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points over 2022.

Export Leaders:

• Fantini Group: 96.4% export share.
• Ruffino: 91.1% export share.
• Argea: 89.9% export share.

Global Wine Market Context

In 2023, global wine production was estimated at 237 million hectoliters, a sharp decline of 9.6% compared to 2022. World consumption was 221 million hectoliters, down 2.6%. Red wine consumption declined from an average share of 51.3% (2000-2004) to 48.3% (2017-2021), while white wine consumption increased from 40% to 42.2%, and rosé wines rose from 8.7% to 9.5%.

Italy followed these global trends, with production falling 23.2% compared to 2022 and consumption declining 1.6%, with per capita consumption at 37.4 liters per year. Italy remains the leading exporter of wine in terms of quantity (21.4 million hectoliters in 2023) and second in value (EUR 7.7 billion), behind France (EUR 11.9 billion).

Regional Highlights

• PDO and PGI Wines: 47.7% of Italian wine was PDO (Doc and Docg) in 2023, up from 38.5% in 2013. PGI wines decreased from 35% in 2013 to 27% in 2023.
• Top Regions: Tuscany, Piedmont, and Veneto are key regions, with Tuscany producing 39.3% of DOP wines.
• Financial Stability: Tuscan companies have the highest EBIT margin (16.5%) and ROI (6.3%), with financial debts at just 18.4% of invested capital.

Future Outlook and Sustainability

Optimism for 2024 is high in regions like Emilia-Romagna (+4.6%), Puglia (+4.3%), and Piedmont (+4.2%). The industry's "Identity Card" indicates family control over 64.8% of net assets, rising to 81.4% with cooperatives. Financial investors hold 10.9% of equity, and private equity funds participate in the capitals of major wineries regardless of size.

However, sustainability remains an area for improvement. Only 34.9% of major Italian wine companies produce a Sustainability Report, with challenges including the complexity of validation processes and lack of benchmarks.

Conclusion

The Italian wine sector is poised for moderate growth in 2024, driven by strong performance in sparkling wines and strategic positioning in premium and sustainable markets. Despite challenges such as inflation and market polarization, the sector's resilience and adaptability are evident. Continued focus on exports, regional excellence, and sustainability will be key to maintaining momentum and securing future growth.