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The Uncertain Future of the U.S. Wine Sector Amid Potential New Dietary Guidelines

The wine industry in the United States faces an uncertain future as health authorities contemplate redefining the safety of alcohol consumption.

If the 2025 dietary guidelines classify wine as unsafe in any quantity, the repercussions for the sector could be severe.

This potential change follows a decline in wine sales after the World Health Organization (WHO) labeled alcohol consumption as harmful last year.

Current Guidelines and Potential Changes

Currently, U.S. dietary guidelines allow moderate alcohol consumption: up to two drinks per day for men and one for women. However, these recommendations may be revised to align with Canada’s stricter guidelines, which suggest no more than two drinks per week. A Wine Opinions survey of 2,000 American drinkers revealed that 66% of 21- to 39-year-olds would reduce their drinking if such changes were enacted.

Michael Kaiser, executive vice president of Wine America, noted that the existing guidelines already advise against starting to drink alcohol due to potential health risks, while also acknowledging that moderate consumption might be safe for healthy adults. Kaiser warned that stricter guidelines could significantly reduce consumption, especially among young people, relegating wine to special occasions only.

Tom Wark, executive director of the National Wine Retailers Association, reported on his blog that a draft proposal for the 2025 dietary guidelines suggests no level of alcohol consumption is safe. This prospect has raised alarms among Congress members.

Political and Scientific Controversies

Last month, the House Oversight and Accountability Committee requested documents related to the review of alcohol and health. The committee criticized the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) for delegating this review to the Interagency Coordinator for the Prevention of Underage Drinking (ICCPUD) instead of conducting a more balanced scientific assessment.

The temperance movement’s influence is significant in this context. Felicity Carter's article in Wine Business Monthly highlighted that the WHO worked with Movendi, an international temperance group, for its anti-alcohol statement. Studies suggesting that moderate alcohol consumption may be healthier than complete abstinence have been overshadowed by research focusing on alcohol's negative health impacts.

The politicization of dietary guidelines is not unprecedented. In 1981, the U.S. Department of Agriculture attempted to classify ketchup as a vegetable to cut school lunch budgets, a move that ultimately failed but indicated the political maneuvering that can surround dietary guidelines. Alcohol politics create unusual alliances, as seen with Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both of whom abstain from alcohol and have family histories of alcoholism, potentially influencing their stance on restrictive alcohol consumption guidelines.

Congressional Influence and Industry Concerns

James Comer (R-Kentucky) and Lisa McClain (R-Michigan), leaders of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, have political motives that could shape the debate. Comer, representing a major whiskey-producing state, has been vocal in his efforts to unseat Biden. McClain, a staunch Trump supporter and Catholic, reflects the historical Catholic resistance to alcohol prohibition.

Mike Thompson (D-CA), representing Napa County and co-chair of the Congressional Wine Caucus, expressed concern about the transparency of the scientific review process. He emphasized the necessity of basing any guideline changes on robust scientific evidence.

Industry Call to Action

Although the new dietary guidelines are not expected until 2025, Tom Wark encourages those invested in the wine industry to contact their congressional representatives to advocate for balanced guidelines. Engaging in dialogue over a glass of wine might just be the way to sway opinions.

The U.S. wine sector stands at a crossroads, with potential regulatory changes threatening its stability. As the debate unfolds, industry stakeholders and consumers alike are urged to stay informed and proactive in shaping the future landscape of wine consumption.

Source: The Drinks Business

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