Spain's wine sector enters the 2025 harvest season with cautious optimism.
Following two years of historically low production, early estimates suggest a moderate rebound, placing wine and must output between 37.5 and 38 million hectoliters. While this represents a modest increase over 2024’s provisional figure of 36.8 million hectoliters, it remains below what is traditionally considered a “normal” harvest in Spain.
This preliminary estimate comes from Spain’s key agricultural institutions—Agro-Food Cooperatives, ASAJA, and the Interprofessional Wine Association (OIVE)—who jointly released their forecast in late July. Their outlook is tentative, hinging on how the weather unfolds in the final crucial weeks before the harvest begins in earnest.
Weather: A Double-Edged Sword
Weather has been the dominant factor shaping the 2025 growing season. After a dry winter, Spain faced prolonged drought, heat waves, and localized hailstorms. These conditions delayed ripening in some areas while accelerating it in others, leading to irregular vineyard development.
In regions such as Castilla-La Mancha, which represents 50–60% of Spain’s total wine output, conditions have been relatively favorable. The region anticipates around 24 million hectoliters, a 5% increase over last year, with Cuenca and Albacete even projecting 10% growth. Here, producers report healthy vines and a good sugar-acidity balance, which could bode well for grape quality—if weather stays stable.
But elsewhere, the picture is less rosy. The southern Montilla-Moriles region expects a devastating 40% drop in output due to drought and an aggressive mildew outbreak. The Valencian Community, especially the inland regions like Utiel-Requena and Vall d’Albaida, faces a 30% decline.
Disease Pressure and Biodiversity Issues
Fungal diseases, especially mildew, have had a significant impact this year. Standard treatments have failed in Andalusia, La Rioja, Galicia, and parts of Castile and León, resulting in substantial losses. In contrast, Castilla-La Mancha has fared better, benefiting from dry weather during key stages of the vine cycle.
Adding to the pressure, wildlife damage has been reported in various areas. Rabbits, wild boars, and snails have fed on young shoots and low-lying clusters, particularly in weakened or low-intervention vineyards.
Sector Response: Price, Policy, and Precaution
Although production may be slightly up, production costs are also higher, leading producers and organizations like ASAJA to call for fair pricing. There's concern that grape growers could bear the brunt of market volatility despite facing higher risks and expenses.
The OIVE, which continues to monitor the sector closely, has urged a quality-over-quantity approach to bolster Spain’s international competitiveness. Tools like spot distillation or green harvesting may be deployed to help balance market supply.
Minister of Agriculture Luis Planas confirmed no drastic reforms are planned—mass vineyard uprooting, as seen in France, is off the table. Instead, Spain will rely on market tools and moderate production levels to navigate the coming months.
Stocks and Prices
As of May 31, 2025, national wine stocks stood at 33.8 million hectoliters, one million less than in 2024. This lower stock level could help absorb the incoming harvest. In unique regions like Lanzarote, grape prices are expected to remain steady at EUR 3.5 to EUR 3.6 per kilo, although final pricing will depend on actual yields and grape quality.
Conclusion: A Waiting Game
The 2025 harvest is shaping up to be an average year, recovering slightly from previous lows but still vulnerable to final weather events. While Castilla-La Mancha offers hope, many other regions continue to battle adverse conditions, with mildew and drought leaving lasting impacts.
With tariff uncertainties looming in international markets and higher production costs, the Spanish wine sector walks a tightrope. Final figures, and indeed the tone of the campaign, will be determined not only in the vineyard but also in the marketplace.
Source: Vinetur