Retail alcohol sales in Russia have reached a new low for the January–October 2025 period, falling below the previous trough recorded in 2018.
The conclusion comes from an analysis conducted by RBC Vino based on data from the Federal Service for Alcohol, Tobacco, and Tabaccontact (Rosalkogoltobakkontrol) and the Unified International Maritime Information System (EMISS), which provides statistics beginning in 2017.
According to the Russian Alcohol Market Association (RATK), total retail alcohol sales (excluding beer, cider, and beer-based beverages) reached 165.2 million decaliters in the first ten months of 2025. The only year with lower figures was 2017, when sales amounted to 151.9 million decaliters. By contrast, the market’s historical peak was recorded in 2024, with 184.1 million decaliters sold—10.3% more than in the comparable period of 2025.
Category Trends: Declines Across Most Segments
The decline affects nearly all major alcohol categories. Only two show positive year-on-year growth:
- Liquor and vodka products (LVI): +14%
- “Other alcoholic beverages” (whiskey, gin, rum, tequila): +4.1%
Wine consumption is also slowing. Between January and October 2025, Russia registered:
- 46.2 million decaliters of still wine sold (–1.4% YoY)
- 15.8 million decaliters of sparkling wine sold (–2.7% YoY)
- 959,400 decaliters of liqueur wine sold (–10.6% YoY)
Vodka sales—the market’s most traditional category—declined by 3.7%, reaching their lowest level since 2021.
Economic Pressures and Shifting Consumer Behaviour
Industry representatives point to several factors behind the contraction.
According to Andrey Moskovsky, president of the Alkopro Guild, the rising minimum price for strong alcohol has weakened the market’s lower segment:
“The lower segment, which was driving sales, simply deflated. Consumers did not switch to premium categories; they reduced purchases. Combined with declining consumer activity, falling real incomes and a general shift toward savings, demand continues to weaken.”
This view highlights the broader macroeconomic pressures affecting Russian households, particularly in the context of inflation and constrained purchasing power.
Shadow Market Likely Absorbing a Share of Consumption
However, not all experts interpret the decline in official statistics as a sign of lower overall alcohol consumption.
Maxim Chernigovsky, associate professor at the Presidential Academy in St. Petersburg and head of the “Club of Alcohol Market Professionals,” notes that sales may be shifting away from formal channels:
“The rise in excise taxes and duties has driven up retail prices, causing some buyers to shift to the shadow economy—to illegal products not reflected in official reports.”
This suggests that while legal sales continue to contract, the informal or illicit market may be gaining ground, complicating efforts to understand true consumption patterns and enforce quality and safety regulations.
Outlook
The Russian alcohol market is expected to remain under pressure through the end of 2025. Unless purchasing power stabilizes or regulatory conditions change, industry analysts anticipate continued declines across several categories, particularly wine and sparkling wine. At the same time, the potential expansion of the unregulated sector may pose additional challenges for policymakers and producers.
Source: RBK Vino