Russia’s alcohol production — excluding beer, cider, perry, and mead — totaled 16.39 million decaliters in September 2025, marking a 3.07% increase year-on-year, according to data from the Federal Service for Alcohol, Tobacco, and Tobacco Control (Rosalkogoltobakkontrol).
This marks the fifth consecutive month of growth for the sector, although the pace of expansion has begun to slow compared to earlier months.
Gradual Slowdown in Monthly Growth
The recovery in production has been steady but moderating since spring. Growth rates reached 8.2% in May, 8.9% in June, 6.6% in July, and 5% in August, before easing to 3.07% in September. This trend suggests that while the market continues to recover from a weak start to the year, the initial surge in restocking and stabilization may now be tapering off.
Year-to-Date Production Still Down
From January to September 2025, total alcohol output amounted to 120.78 million decaliters, representing a 9.1% decrease year-on-year. The decline stems largely from the inventory buildup at the end of 2024, when producers accelerated production to anticipate higher excise taxes and minimum retail prices that came into effect on January 1, 2024. As a result, many producers entered 2025 with significant reserves, leading to reduced production during the first four months of the year.
Category Breakdown: Spirits and Still Wine Drive Growth
The Russian Alcohol Concern (RATK) reports that not all segments of the alcohol industry followed the same trajectory in September:
- Spirits excluding vodka, brandy, and liqueurs recorded a 17% year-on-year increase, reaching 1.1 million decaliters. This category includes fortified wines, fruit spirits, and niche distilled beverages that are seeing renewed interest among Russian consumers.
- Still wine production also grew strongly, rising 8.3% to 2.91 million decaliters, reflecting steady domestic demand and the increasing presence of Russian wines on the local market.
- Sparkling wine production, however, declined 5.8% to 1.82 million decaliters, suggesting that this segment may be reaching a plateau after several years of rapid expansion driven by “Russian Champagne” (Shampanskoye) production.
Market Outlook
Analysts expect the Russian alcohol industry to continue a moderate recovery through the end of 2025. Stable consumer demand for domestic products and gradual adaptation to new excise tax levels are likely to support production. However, the overall slowdown in monthly growth rates indicates that the market may soon reach a point of normalization after several months of compensatory increases.
The long-term outlook remains influenced by macroeconomic pressures, changing consumer preferences, and government regulatory policies—especially those linked to pricing and labeling reforms introduced earlier in the year.
Source: Kommersant