Italy is set to reclaim its status as the world’s leading wine producer in 2025, according to the joint report by Assoenologi, ISMEA, and Unione Italiana Vini (UIV).
The country is forecasted to reach 47.4 million hectoliters, an increase of 8% compared to last season. This positions Italy clearly ahead of France (37.4 million hectoliters) and Spain (36 million hectoliters), restoring its top spot on the global stage.
Favorable Conditions in Italy
The report, prepared with the Ministry of Agriculture and the regions, notes that vineyards across Italy are in good health.
- Winter provided abundant water reserves.
- Spring remained mild, allowing balanced vegetative growth.
- Summer enabled an earlier harvest in several regions, while in the south, the spring rains helped vines endure June and August heat waves.
The result: healthy grapes and a promising outlook for both quality and quantity.
France: Growth with Structural Challenges
France expects 37.4 million hectoliters of wine in 2025, a 3% increase from last year but still 13% below its five-year average. Key factors:
- Heat and drought accelerated ripening in Burgundy, Beaujolais, Languedoc, and Charentes, reducing juice content and limiting production.
- Vineyard reductions continue, with 20,000 hectares uprooted in Bordeaux, the Southwest, and Languedoc to curb oversupply. Some producers worry this may increase vulnerability to wildfires.
Regional variations are sharp:
- Champagne: +12% vs. 2024, but still 10% below the five-year average.
- Bordeaux: Harvest advanced to mid-August; volumes stable year-on-year but 15% below recent averages.
- Beaujolais: Smallest harvest since 2012.
- Loire Valley: Production expected to rise compared to last year.
Spain: Stabilizing but Below Average
Spain forecasts around 36 million hectoliters of wine production in 2025, slightly better than recent years but well below the historical average of 43 million. Structural issues include:
- A sharp reduction in vineyard area: from 1.3 million hectares in past decades to under 900,000 today.
- Harvests forced earlier than expected by heat waves, pushing producers to pick quickly to avoid over-ripening.
Southern Hemisphere: Mixed Outlook
- Argentina: Stable at 10.37 million hectoliters, maintaining balance after years of fluctuations.
- Australia: Around 11 million hectoliters, up 11% from last year but still below historical averages.
- Chile: Sharp decline, down 9.9% to 8.39 million hectoliters, its lowest in a decade.
- South Africa: 8.89 million hectoliters, a dry season limiting volume but delivering good quality potential.
Northern Hemisphere Beyond Italy, France, and Spain
- United States: USDA suggests up to 20.2 million hectoliters, but high stocks could limit final production to around 2.5 million tons.
- Germany: 9.3 million hectoliters projected, with strong quality potential but facing low prices and excess inventory.
- Portugal: 6.2 million hectoliters, down 11% due to heavy rain and mildew, particularly in the Douro, Lisbon, and Alentejo.
Climate Change and Market Adjustments
The 2025 harvest underscores how climate change continues to shape the wine sector. While favorable conditions boosted Italy, adverse weather reduced yields elsewhere. Simultaneously, structural reforms are underway: vineyard reductions in France and Spain, quality-focused production in South Africa, and portfolio diversification in Australia and Argentina.
The global picture for 2025 shows the top ten producing countries accounting for roughly 195 million hectoliters, up slightly from 193 million in 2024. Italy’s return to the top position highlights both its viticultural resilience and its role as a reference point for the global wine trade.
Source: Vinetur