Italy’s wine cellars are showing signs of gradual relief as national wine stocks fell sharply between July and September 2025, according to the latest Cantina Italia report published by the ICQRF (Central Inspectorate for the Protection of Quality and Fraud Prevention of Agri-food Products).
However, compared to the same period last year, inventory levels remain slightly higher, reflecting a market still burdened by previous surpluses and cautious about an expectedly abundant 2025 harvest.
Wine Stocks Down 9.6% Since July, Yet Up Year-on-Year
As of September 30, 2025, Italian wineries held 36 million hectoliters of wine in storage, a 9.6% decrease (–3.8 million hectoliters) compared to July 31, when inventories were unusually high. Nevertheless, stocks remain 1.3% higher (+448,648 hectoliters) than in September 2024.
To these figures, the ICQRF report adds 8.5 million hectoliters of must and 4.6 million hectoliters of new wine still in fermentation (Vnaif), bringing the total liquid inventory to nearly 49 million hectoliters.
These results illustrate a dual dynamic: while wineries have managed to free up capacity for the incoming harvest, the persistence of high stock levels continues to weigh on producers, particularly given that the 2025 vintage is anticipated to be large.
Divergent Harvest Estimates
Forecasts for the 2025 Italian grape harvest remain subject to debate.
- Legacoop Agroalimentare projects a smaller output at 44 million hectoliters.
- Unione Italiana Vini (UIV), Assoenologi, and Ismea maintain a higher estimate of 47.4 million hectoliters.
- Coldiretti, in its July forecast, estimated 45 million hectoliters.
Despite these variations, consensus points toward a bountiful vintage, which could intensify concerns about oversupply and price pressure in the coming months.
Northern Regions Dominate Storage
The report highlights a strong geographical imbalance in wine storage: 58.6% of Italy’s total wine volume is concentrated in the northern regions, led by Veneto, which alone holds 25.2% of the country’s stock. Within Veneto, the provinces of Treviso (10.2%) and Verona (9.5%) remain dominant hubs, reflecting the strong presence of large-scale appellations and export-oriented production.
Central and southern regions account for smaller shares, though Puglia and Tuscany continue to feature prominently due to their sizeable IGP and DOCG wine bases.
DOP Wines Represent the Majority of Stocks
Italy’s Denomination of Protected Origin (DOP) wines continue to make up the majority of cellar inventories, representing 57.4% of total stocks. Among these, red wines predominate (55.8%), reflecting the structure of Italy’s appellation system and consumer trends.
IGP wines account for 25% of stocks, with an even stronger bias toward red varieties (62%). Meanwhile, varietal wines constitute only 1.6% of the total, and other wines (non-DOP/IGP) represent 16%.
Concentration of Geographical Indication Wines
Of the 526 recognized Geographical Indication (GI) wines in Italy, production remains heavily concentrated in a small number of leading denominations. The top 20 denominations alone represent 57.3% of total IGP wine stocks.
As usual, Prosecco DOC leads the rankings, with 2.8 million hectoliters in storage — 9.4% of all Italian wine. It is followed by:
- IGT Toscana: 1.4 million hectoliters (4.9%)
- IGT Puglia: 1.2 million hectoliters (4.1%)
- Chianti DOCG: 1.1 million hectoliters (3.8%)
- Montepulciano d’Abruzzo DOC: 885,964 hectoliters (3%)
This concentration underscores the structural dominance of a handful of large appellations that continue to shape Italy’s export profile and domestic supply.
Outlook: A Balancing Act Between Stocks and Harvest
The September 2025 Cantina Italia data reveal a sector cautiously rebalancing — reducing cellar loads while bracing for a potentially large harvest. Although stock reductions are a positive sign, the persistence of elevated inventory levels may limit price recovery and strain storage capacity if the new vintage turns out as abundant as predicted.
Industry observers note that the Italian wine sector faces a delicate equilibrium: managing record production, sustaining quality, and preventing oversupply in both domestic and export markets. The months ahead will determine whether the modest decline in stocks is the beginning of a broader adjustment — or merely a temporary pause before another cycle of accumulation.
Source: WineNews