Italy’s wine industry and its wider supply chain generate an estimated €40.7 billion in economic activity, equivalent to 2.1% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to a new strategic report presented by The European House Ambrosetti (TEHA Group).
The study highlights the sector’s importance to the Italian economy while warning that climate change, slowing exports, labor shortages and changing consumer behavior are creating growing challenges for producers.
The report, titled Visione Vino 2026 – Deep Roots, Distant Gaze, was presented at the final Community Visione Vino forum in Voghera, in Lombardy’s Oltrepò Pavese wine district. It examines the economic contribution of Italian wine and outlines priorities for strengthening the sector’s competitiveness in an increasingly uncertain global market.
Its recommendations focus on closer business cooperation, innovation and digitalization, workforce development, coordinated international promotion and a stronger connection between wine, culture and territorial identity.
Wine Generates €40.7 Billion Across the Italian Economy
According to the report, Italy’s wine sector generated €16.5 billion in revenue in 2025, alongside €4.7 billion in direct value added. The country had approximately 681,000 hectares of vineyards across its regions and 530 protected origin and geographical indication certifications.
When the wider supply chain is included, total revenue rises to €36.8 billion and direct value added to €15.1 billion. Once indirect and induced economic effects are considered, the sector’s overall contribution reaches €40.7 billion.
These broader effects include economic activity generated by suppliers, distributors, restaurants, business services and the spending supported by employment and income throughout the wine ecosystem.
Ambrosetti identified four economic activity codes directly connected to wine and another 10 indirectly affected. The wider network includes intermediation, distribution, food service and business support services.
Intermediation, distribution and restaurants alone generate €10.4 billion in value added, in addition to the €4.7 billion produced directly by the wine sector.
The report calculates an economic multiplier of 2.7 for the extended wine chain. In practical terms, every €1 of direct value added activates an additional €1.70 elsewhere in the economy. This is higher than the 2.5 multiplier estimated for the broader agrifood chain.
The findings demonstrate that wine’s economic importance extends far beyond vineyards and wineries. Its performance also affects hospitality, tourism, logistics, retail and a wide network of service providers.
Climate Change Emerges as a Major Structural Risk
Despite its economic strength, Italian wine faces mounting environmental risks. The report identifies climate change as one of the most significant long-term threats to vineyard production, regional identities and business stability.
Over the past decade, economic losses associated with climate events in the European Union have increased 2.8 times, according to the study. Italy ranks first in the EU in annual damage, at an estimated €13.4 billion.
The vulnerability of agriculture is particularly pronounced because only 10% of Italian agricultural land is insured against climate risks, compared with an EU average of 42%.
The effects are already visible in wine-growing areas. During the first six months of 2026, Italian wine-growing municipalities recorded an average temperature anomaly of 2.4°C above the 1961–1990 reference period. Northern Italy experienced an average anomaly of 2.8°C, while central Italy recorded 2.5°C.
Higher temperatures and more frequent droughts can affect grape development, water availability, harvest timing and wine style. Extreme weather events can also damage infrastructure and reduce yields, making production planning and financial forecasting more difficult.
The report cites estimates suggesting that up to 90% of traditional vineyard areas in lowland and coastal parts of Spain, Italy and Greece could be at risk by the end of the century, primarily because of drought and heat waves.
At the same time, changing climatic conditions are improving the suitability of some areas previously considered marginal for viticulture. In the United Kingdom, vineyard area in production increased from approximately 1,300 hectares in 2012 to 3,400 hectares in 2023, while northern France is also seeing new opportunities.
For Italian producers, the challenge is therefore twofold: adapting established vineyards to increasingly difficult conditions while responding to shifts in the geographical distribution of wine production.
Italian Wine Exports Double in 15 Years but Lose Momentum
International trade remains a central pillar of the Italian wine industry. According to the report, wine exports doubled in value from €3.9 billion in 2010 to €7.8 billion in 2025, representing average annual growth of 4.7%.
However, recent figures indicate a slowdown. Italian wine exports declined 3.7% in 2025 compared with 2024, followed by a further 5.3% decrease in the first seven months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to Istat data cited in the discussion.
The United States, Germany and the United Kingdom continue to account for nearly half of Italian wine exports. Weakness in these markets contributed significantly to the recent downturn, with tariff-related difficulties adding pressure in the United States.
The concentration of export revenue in established markets exposes producers to changes in trade policy, consumer demand and economic conditions in a relatively small number of destinations.
Nevertheless, the report points to a gradual diversification of Italian wine exports. The top 10 foreign markets now account for 73% of total exports, down eight percentage points from 2010.
This suggests that Italian producers have expanded their international reach, although established markets remain crucial to the industry's overall performance.
China and Emerging Markets Offer Untapped Potential
Ambrosetti argues that substantial growth opportunities remain outside Europe's traditional wine markets, particularly in Asia.
The report illustrates the differences in market penetration through export value per capita. Italian wine exports amount to approximately €44 per person in Switzerland, €18 in Belgium and €17 in Sweden. By comparison, the figures are around €0.10 in China, €0.01 in Indonesia and €0.002 in India.
These differences highlight the potential for Italian wine to strengthen its presence in markets where consumption of Italian products remains relatively limited.
One scenario developed by TEHA Group estimates that if Italian wine exports to China reached €0.50 per person, annual sales could exceed €700 million, approximately 10 times the current level of €66 million.
This is a hypothetical scenario rather than a forecast. Realizing such growth would depend on consumer demand, distribution networks, pricing, market access and the ability of Italian producers to build stronger brand recognition.
For wineries and export-oriented businesses, the findings reinforce the case for coordinated international promotion and investment in market development. Smaller producers, in particular, may benefit from partnerships that help them overcome the cost and complexity of entering distant markets.
Small Businesses and Generational Succession Shape the Sector
The structure of Italy’s wine industry presents both strengths and vulnerabilities. Family ownership remains widespread, with family businesses accounting for 65% of the sector’s net worth. The share rises to 81.5% when cooperatives are included.
According to the report, 30.4% of families in the sector have already completed generational succession, while 39.2% are currently going through the process.
Businesses that have completed succession reported revenue growth of 8.8% and an 18% increase in investment. These findings suggest that successful transitions can coincide with renewed investment and business development, although they do not establish that succession alone caused the improvements.
The issue is particularly relevant in a country where 45% of farm business owners are older than 65, a proportion 10 percentage points above the EU average.
At the same time, the wine sector is dominated by small enterprises. Ambrosetti estimates that 95% of wine companies are small businesses, accounting for 49% of total revenue.
Smaller firms often have fewer resources to invest in export development, technology, specialist employees and climate adaptation. The report also observed that export declines in 2025 were more pronounced in regions with a greater concentration of microenterprises, indicating a relationship between business scale and international reach.
Strengthening cooperation between companies could help address these limitations without requiring smaller producers to abandon their independent identities.
Business networks, shared services and strategic alliances could offer access to expertise, distribution channels and investment opportunities that would otherwise be difficult to secure individually.
Younger Consumers Are Changing How Wine Is Perceived
Demographic change is also reshaping the domestic market. The report highlights a growing distinction between older consumers, for whom wine is more closely associated with everyday meals, and younger generations, who increasingly view it as a drink for specific occasions.
According to TEHA, only 14% of Italians under 35 drink wine with everyday meals, compared with 38% of people over 65.
Among younger consumers, 50% primarily associate wine with special occasions, while the corresponding figure among older drinkers is 34%.
These differences suggest that the traditional role of wine in daily food culture cannot be taken for granted among younger generations.
For producers, the challenge is not simply to increase sales but to communicate the relevance of wine to consumers whose preferences and social habits are evolving.
The report recommends presenting wine more clearly as a cultural and territorial asset, connecting it with landscapes, local communities, people, craftsmanship, food, social experiences and regional heritage.
Such an approach could help wineries communicate the value of their products beyond technical descriptions, grape varieties and price points.
It also offers a way to differentiate Italian wine in international markets, where regional identity and authentic experiences can be important elements of a brand's appeal.
Digitalization and E-Commerce Offer New Growth Opportunities
Digital tools are becoming increasingly relevant to wine discovery and purchasing, but adoption across the industry remains uneven.
According to the report, 48.6% of wine consumers already use digital tools, mainly to research information and reviews or discover new wines and producers.
Wineries identified e-commerce, through direct sales channels or online marketplaces, as the main driver of revenue growth through 2030.
However, digital maturity remains limited. Approximately half of wineries reported that they do not use artificial intelligence, while fewer than 5% identified e-commerce and digitalization as trends to monitor.
This gap between consumer behavior and business readiness represents both a challenge and an opportunity.
Digital platforms can help wineries reach customers beyond their immediate geographical areas, communicate directly with consumers, collect insights about purchasing preferences and develop more targeted marketing strategies.
For smaller producers, online sales and digital storytelling may provide additional ways to build brand awareness without relying exclusively on traditional distribution networks.
However, effective digitalization requires more than establishing an online shop. Businesses also need suitable logistics, product information, customer service, data management and the skills to integrate digital channels into their wider commercial strategy.
Wine Tourism Attracts Consumers but Businesses Need Stronger Digital Strategies
Wine tourism is another area in which consumer interest appears to be outpacing the digital readiness of businesses.
Ambrosetti reported that 53% of consumers had participated in at least one wine tourism activity during the previous 12 months. For 32.4% of wineries, wine tourism already accounts for more than 5% of revenue.
Digital tools are increasingly influencing how visitors plan their experiences. Approximately 40% of consumers either already use artificial intelligence to organize wine tourism activities or say they are very likely to do so.
Yet only 31% of wineries have a defined digital strategy for wine tourism.
The findings suggest opportunities to connect wine sales with hospitality, regional gastronomy and cultural experiences. Well-developed tourism offerings can introduce visitors to wineries and their wines while supporting restaurants, accommodation providers and other local businesses.
For wine regions, coordinated tourism strategies may also strengthen the economic benefits generated by wine beyond the value of the bottles sold.
A Strategic Agenda for the Future of Italian Wine
The Visione Vino 2026 report draws on a representative survey of approximately 1,000 Italian consumers, a July 2026 survey of 72 wineries, an analysis of 14 economic activity codes and a review of Italian and international case studies.
Its recommendations call for a more coordinated approach to the industry's long-term development, built around five priorities:
- Stronger business networks: Encourage alliances and cooperation to improve competitiveness, particularly among smaller wineries.
- Innovation and digitalization: Expand the use of e-commerce, digital marketing, artificial intelligence and data-driven decision-making.
- Skills and workforce development: Address labor shortages, attract specialized talent and support generational renewal.
- Coordinated international promotion: Diversify export markets and strengthen the visibility of Italian wine abroad.
- Cultural and territorial positioning: Communicate wine through its connection with landscapes, communities, gastronomy and heritage.
The underlying message is that Italy’s wine industry must build on its established strengths while adapting to a more demanding commercial and environmental landscape.
Italy’s Wine Industry Faces a Defining Period
Italy’s wine sector remains a major contributor to national economic activity, generating €40.7 billion when its broader economic effects are included. Its export achievements, regional diversity and network of family-owned businesses provide a substantial foundation for future development.
However, climate risks, weaker export performance, demographic change and uneven digital adoption are exposing structural vulnerabilities. The dominance of small enterprises makes collaboration, access to investment and workforce development particularly important.
The opportunities are equally significant. Emerging export markets, e-commerce, wine tourism and stronger links between wine and cultural identity could help producers diversify their revenue and reach new audiences.
The central challenge is to translate Italy’s economic and cultural advantages into a more resilient business model—one capable of preserving regional diversity while responding to changing global demand.
As Visione Vino 2026 makes clear, the future competitiveness of Italian wine will depend not only on the quality of its wines, but also on how effectively the industry collaborates, innovates and communicates its value to the next generation of consumers.
Source: Vinetur