The early months of 2025 have confirmed what many in the wine trade anticipated: a strong January, a cooling in February, and a more sobering picture by March.
Italian wine exports, while still in positive territory in terms of value, are showing clear signs of deceleration—and potentially, more difficult times ahead.
According to Istat data analyzed by WineNews, total Italian wine exports from January to March 2025 reached EUR 1.85 billion, a modest +0.9% compared to the same period in 2024. However, this growth rate masks a marked slowdown when compared to +7.5% in January and +3.6% in February. The sharpest concern arises from export volumes, which have continued to decline, reaching 492.7 million liters, down 2.7% year-on-year, further deepening the negative trend seen in February (-1.7%).
Even sparkling wines, which have long been the backbone of Italian export strength, are beginning to falter. Exports of spumante reached EUR 495.5 million in March, reflecting a slim increase of 0.57% compared to March 2024—far less robust than the 4.5% growth seen just a month prior.
Key Markets: Mixed Signals
The United States, Italy’s most critical export destination, continued to deliver growth but at a slower pace. Exports reached EUR 513.3 million in value, up 12.5% year-on-year. However, this compares unfavorably to January’s +20.5% and February’s +19.3%. Volume growth to the U.S. was similarly tempered, rising 3.8%, a drop from February’s +8.2%. Industry experts attribute part of the January-February spike to a rush by importers ahead of newly imposed tariffs that came into force in April.
Other European markets are also showing signs of fatigue. Germany posted EUR 275.9 million in value, a gain of 1.7%, but volumes remained slightly down at -1.4%. The UK recorded a -1.4% decline in value to EUR 168.2 million, although volume crept into positive territory at +0.39%.
Canada maintained a healthier growth trajectory at +8.7%, though slower than February’s 14.6%. In contrast, Switzerland and France were flat, posting changes of -0.78% and +0.79%, respectively. The Netherlands saw a marginal +0.68% increase.
Belgium, once a bright spot, is now reflecting the overall trend. After strong growth early in the year, March exports were nearly flat at +0.85%, totaling EUR 54.3 million.
Asia and Eastern Europe: Declines Deepen
The picture becomes more troubling further east. Japan saw a double-digit drop in value of -10.6% to EUR 39.9 million, while China continued its free fall: March figures show a -22.5% decline to EUR 16.2 million, following February’s -27%. The worst performer was Russia, where exports plummeted by -62.7% to EUR 30.8 million, with volumes collapsing from 27.8 million liters in Q1 2024 to just 7.9 million liters in Q1 2025.
Stockpiles and Outlook
These underwhelming export figures are compounded by rising wine inventories in Italy. According to the latest Cantina Italia report, national wine stocks stood at 46.6 million hectoliters as of May 31, 2025—+0.4% compared to last year. This surplus suggests sluggish domestic and international sales alike.
Though the first quarter closed with value growth intact, the downward momentum is unmistakable. With the arrival of new tariffs in April and signs of deceleration even in duty-free markets, Italian wine exporters face a challenging road ahead. The days of double-digit growth may be behind us—at least for now.
Source: WineNews