As the July 9 deadline approaches, anxiety is mounting across Italy’s agri-food sector. That date marks the potential end of the current suspension of U.S. duties, which—if no diplomatic breakthrough is reached—could jump dramatically to 50%.
The U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking to Fox News, dismissed the need for an extension: “I could do it, but I don’t think there’s any need for this,” he said, while adding that his administration is “sending letters” to countries affected and has already struck agreements with China and the UK. Negotiations with the European Union remain unresolved.
Italian food and wine producers are closely watching developments, especially given their experience with recent tariffs under the Trump administration, which have already had chilling effects on trade. Coldiretti and Filiera Italia believe Italy could still reach EUR 9 billion in agri-food exports to the U.S. in 2025—but only if trade barriers don’t tighten.
The warning signs are clear. In the first month of the current duties, growth in Italian food exports to the U.S. plummeted from +28.7% in 2024 to just +1.3%. These figures, presented by Coldiretti at the Summer Fancy Food Show in New York, underscore the stakes. The Italian delegation at the show—including Minister of Agriculture Francesco Lollobrigida and key industry figures—emphasized Italy’s leadership in food quality and the value of strong transatlantic cooperation.
Tariffs Already Taking a Toll
Since April 2025, additional U.S. tariffs (initially 20%, then halved to 10%) have impacted Italy’s performance in its second-largest agri-food export market. The first quarter of 2025 still showed an 11% growth, in line with a 10-year average. But this may be a mirage, inflated by a year-end stockpiling rush. The real hit began in April, with:
- Wine exports down 9% in value, compared to +18.1% in April 2024
- Cheese exports slowing to +7%, from +24.5%
- Olive oil falling -17%, compared to +75% in April 2024
This downturn is also being felt in U.S. supermarkets, as duties and a weakened dollar push up shelf prices. Coldiretti estimates that a 10% duty translates into an added cost of nearly EUR 800 million for American consumers—costs often passed back to Italian exporters through discount requests from U.S. importers.
More Than Just Tariffs: A Battle for Authenticity
Coldiretti warns of another long-term consequence: Italian Sounding, or counterfeit "Italian" products made abroad. The U.S. is a major hub for this phenomenon, with fake Italian cheeses and other products now worth over EUR 40 billion globally. Higher tariffs on genuine Italian goods risk increasing demand for these imitations, undermining Italy’s food identity and consumer safety.
Italy Pushes Back on Multiple Fronts
At the Summer Fancy Food Show, Coldiretti, Filiera Italia, and ICE hosted a major panel on "The Excellence of the Italian Food Model", reinforcing Italy’s commitment to global leadership in food quality. Minister Lollobrigida called Italy an “agri-food superpower”, praising the alliance of institutions, companies, and associations in promoting exports.
He also stressed that commercial harmony with the U.S. must reflect shared democratic values, calling trade cooperation a sign of “prosperity and well-being.”
Meanwhile, UNESCO candidacy efforts for Italian cuisine were highlighted in Times Square with a video campaign showcasing Italian culinary heritage. And in the Columbus Citizens Foundation building in New York, Italy inaugurated the future “House of Made in Italy” ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
A Broader Economic Risk
According to Coldiretti General Secretary Vincenzo Gesmundo, U.S. tariffs could weigh heavily on the entire national economy—not just exporting firms. CEO of Filiera Italia Luigi Scordamaglia emphasized that U.S. consumers are increasingly embracing the Italian food model, seen as a defense against ultra-processed diets now under global health scrutiny.
Backed by data from Istat and Eurostat, Coldiretti notes that past U.S. tariffs (2019–2020) triggered double-digit export drops across multiple categories:
- Fruit: -15%
- Cheeses and jams: -19%
- Meat and processed fish: -28%
- Liqueurs: -20%
- Wine: -6%
Still, Italy’s appeal remains strong. American food tourists—over 135,000 in 2024—spent more than EUR 2.3 billion in Italy, ranking culinary experiences above even art and history.
Conclusion
With the July 9 deadline days away, the clock is ticking for EU-U.S. negotiations. Italian agri-food producers are calling not only for a resolution on tariffs, but for broader reforms within the EU—chiefly to reduce internal bureaucratic “duties” that stifle competitiveness. The stakes go far beyond commerce. At risk is not only one of Italy’s most vital export sectors but also a model of food culture and authenticity admired worldwide.
Source: Wine News