A hot, dry summer has left German winemakers with a smaller crop this year.
Producers and officials still say the vintage could be a strong one. Two official sources, the German Wine Institute (DWI) and the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), agree the harvest will come in below average. They differ on how far below.
A harvest well under the norm
In its first forecast, the DWI expects 2026 volumes to land about 20% below the 10-year average of 8.7 million hectoliters. If that holds, it would be Germany’s smallest harvest since 2010, when production totaled 7.1 million hectoliters. Last year’s crop reached 7.7 million hectoliters.
Destatis is more optimistic. It says growers expect a harvest 4% below the 2020-2025 average, a shortfall of roughly 30 million liters, with total production near 8.0 million hectoliters. That would still edge past the 2025 figure.
The two estimates differ because of timing. Destatis based its numbers on a survey dated September 20, before the harvest was finished. The DWI issued its figure as a first forecast at the end of the harvest. Both are provisional, and final production figures will only be clear once all grapes have been processed. Buyers, traders and retailers will need to plan with that uncertainty in mind.
Why the crop is smaller
The hot summer sped up ripening and brought an unusually early start to the harvest. Drought and heat also kept many grapes smaller than normal. According to the DWI, those smaller berries developed more concentrated contents, which can support wine quality.
Quality expectations stay high
Despite the lower volumes, both institutions are upbeat. The DWI says growers anticipate “top quality.” Destatis reports no large-scale damage from weather events in 2026 and says the grapes point to a good vintage.
White wine dominates, with shifts by variety
About 70% of the crop is white must and 30% red grapes, according to Destatis. Gains are expected mainly for Riesling and Dornfelder. Volumes of Green Silvaner and Blauer Portugieser are forecast to be lower.
A split between regions
Results varied sharply across Germany’s wine regions. Compared with last year, Rheinhessen, the Palatinate and Baden reported larger harvests. Output is expected to fall in the Mosel and in Franconia.
The DWI attributes much of the difference to vine age and the water-holding capacity of vineyard soils. DWI spokesperson Ernst Büscher said older vines, with deep root systems, have adapted to rising dryness in recent years and handled this year’s drought surprisingly well. Younger vineyards and sites on lighter soils were visibly affected by water shortages and were irrigated where possible. The season reinforces a broader pattern in German viticulture: resilience increasingly depends on site conditions and vine maturity.
Supply is tighter while demand is softer
The smaller crop arrives as German wine demand is weakening. The DWI says consumption has been declining and wine sales fell about 7% in 2025, affecting both German and imported wines. The number of households buying wine did not drop, but consumers purchased less often and in smaller quantities.
Softer demand may partly cushion the market impact of reduced supply. It also leaves producers squeezed by weather-related yield pressure, growing adaptation needs in the vineyard and a domestic market where consumption is easing. For wholesalers, retailers and restaurant buyers, tighter and regionally uneven supply could influence sourcing decisions for German still and sparkling wines in the next selling cycle.
What to watch
The main open question is how far output will finally fall below recent norms. Until the final figures arrive, the shared picture is a smaller-than-average harvest with reduced berry size, high quality expectations and a market that will need careful planning on purchasing, pricing and availability.
Source: Vinetur