The French Ministry of Agriculture, drawing on data from the Statistics and Prospects Service (SSP), has revised downward its forecast for the 2025 wine harvest.
The new projection places expected production at 37.4 million hectoliters, a reduction of between 3 and 5 million hectoliters compared to the previous estimate of 40–42.5 million hectoliters issued on August 8.
While the 37.4 million hectoliters still represent a modest 3% increase over 2024’s harvest—itself considered very low—the abrupt downward revision represents a 7–12% cut in just one month.
Heat and Drought Drive Production Decline
According to SSP data, the sharp revision was primarily due to the August heat wave and drought conditions that hit several French wine regions.
- Charente: down 10% compared to the 2020–2024 average.
- Burgundy & Beaujolais: production stable, despite heat pressures.
- Languedoc-Roussillon: down 5%.
Adding to climate stress, the reduction in vineyard areas also weighed heavily on volumes. Since the 2024 harvest, over 20,000 hectares have been uprooted in Bordeaux, the Southwest, and Languedoc-Roussillon.
A Pattern of Forecasting Errors
The French wine industry has expressed frustration at what has become a recurring issue: forecasting errors in harvest estimates. Inaccurate projections—both overestimations and underestimations—were also noted in 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021. This undermines confidence among producers and market operators who rely on accurate data to plan investments and sales strategies.
Compounding the issue is the political uncertainty following the fall of the Bayrou government, raising doubts about the level of attention and resources that will be devoted to the wine sector during a period of crisis.
Quality Over Quantity
Despite the lower volumes, a silver lining remains: early indications suggest that quality standards for the 2025 vintage are high. Favorable ripening conditions may ensure that, while production is smaller than hoped, the wines of 2025 could still be remembered as a “good year.”
Source: WineNews