After years of sluggish consumption, stock overhang, and a pandemic-fueled slump, optimism is finally returning to China’s wine market.
According to the newly released ProWine International Business Report China 2025, over half of wine trade professionals and producers anticipate improved economic conditions this year. The survey, jointly conducted by ProWine China and Germany’s Geisenheim University, is the first to offer both domestic and international perspectives on China’s evolving wine landscape.
Turning the Corner: Cautious Optimism from the Trade
The report’s most headline-grabbing finding is this: 53% of respondents expect the wine business in China to improve in 2025, with an additional 6% predicting significant improvement. This marks a hopeful shift for a market that has been battered by shifting consumer tastes, tariffs, and prolonged economic uncertainty.
Trade experts appear more upbeat than producers—72% expect wine sales to remain stable or grow, and 39% expect growth of at least 5% in 2025. Producers are more conservative: 32% forecast 5% growth, while 45% foresee further declines.
Despite these differences, both groups agree on one encouraging metric—unsold inventory is no longer the dominant threat, indicating improved sell-through rates and leaner supply chains.
Shifting Demand: White, Sparkling, and Low-Alcohol Wines Gain Ground
When it comes to wine styles through 2027, dry white wines are seen as the strongest performers, backed by 55% of traders and 44% of producers. Sparkling wines and low-/non-alcoholic wines are also gaining traction. Nearly 69% of producers see the latter as the most promising segment, reflecting global wellness trends influencing Chinese consumption habits.
Still red wines—once the dominant category in China—are facing headwinds. A significant gap has emerged: 51% of trade experts still believe in red wine’s potential, while only 29% of producers share their confidence.
The report also identifies RTD (ready-to-drink) beverages, cider, and imported sparkling wines as rising stars in the broader alcoholic drinks category. However, semi-sweet wines and wine-based cocktails are seen as having limited potential.
The New Frontier: Gen Z, Wine Tourism, and Digital Consumption
The survey highlights three critical growth drivers:
- New consumers, especially younger generations
- Creating new wine-drinking occasions
- Culturally resonant digital storytelling
Among trade professionals, 66% cite youth interest, while 59% highlight wine tourism as key to unlocking growth. Producers are more focused on logistics, such as clearing existing inventories (71%) and establishing direct mainland shipping routes (56%) to cut costs and boost competitiveness.
Critically, digital channels are projected to outperform traditional outlets by 2027. 77% of respondents believe livestreaming and social commerce platforms like Douyin (TikTok China) and Little Red Book will dominate wine sales. KOLs (key opinion leaders) and celebrity endorsements are also expected to drive demand, overtaking traditional e-commerce and retail models.
The Power of Storytelling—and the Decline of Western Prestige
More than ever, how wine is framed is just as important as what’s in the bottle. The report reveals a move away from wine’s traditional association with Western status and health benefits. Instead, localised storytelling that reflects Chinese values, culture, and lifestyle aspirations has become the top marketing tool, followed by messages of sophistication and cosmopolitan identity.
This shift is good news for domestic Chinese producers, who are adept at weaving culturally relevant narratives. But it’s also a call to action for international brands: adapt or risk irrelevance.
Is China Still the Priority?
Despite the budding optimism, China’s role in the broader Asian wine market has shifted. Among international producers surveyed, mainland China now ranks fifth as a priority market—trailing Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Mature markets with higher per capita consumption are absorbing more attention, though most producers (58%) still plan to hold their ground in China, ready for a rebound.
Only 25% are considering an exit strategy if growth remains elusive in the next 1–2 years.
Conclusion:
The ProWine China 2025 report suggests a fragile but genuine recovery may be underway. Younger consumers, digital-native channels, and a greater appetite for white, sparkling, and low-alcohol wines are creating new growth pathways. While challenges remain—from tariffs to shifting demographics—the willingness of trade professionals and producers to adapt signals that China’s wine market may yet offer a rich vintage of opportunity.
Source: Vino-Joy