The 2024 wine harvest across Europe faces significant challenges, with overall production projected to decrease slightly.
According to the European Commission's autumn edition of the Report on the Short-Term Prospects for EU Agricultural Markets, wine production in the EU is expected to fall by 1% on an annual basis, remaining 7% below the five-year average. This reduction is compounded by declining consumption and weakening exports, painting a grim picture for the industry. However, Italy is performing better than other European wine-producing nations, with production expected to rise by 7% compared to the previous harvest, although it will still fall below the five-year average.
Italy's Regional Variations in Wine Production
Italy's production increase, estimated by Assoenologi, Ismea, and Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv), is marked by significant regional differences. The southern regions, such as Sicily, are predicted to produce high-quality wines due to dry weather and minimal disease, while in the north, wet weather has led to fungal infections in some vineyards, threatening yields. This variability highlights the unpredictable nature of wine production, where regional climatic conditions play a critical role in shaping the harvest’s outcome.
Spain and France: Struggles Amidst Recovery
In Spain, the 2024 harvest is expected to recover to average levels, driven primarily by the rebound in the Castilla-La Mancha region. This area was severely affected by drought and high temperatures in 2023, but improved weather conditions in 2024 have revitalized production. In contrast, France is facing significant setbacks. The Statistics Service of the Ministry of Agriculture projects a 10% decline below the five-year average, largely due to fungal infections caused by wet weather and hailstorms during the spring. French vineyards have been hit particularly hard, with many wine regions bracing for lower yields.
Germany and Portugal: Mixed Fortunes
In Germany, the situation varies widely across different wine regions. While the main producing areas are expected to enjoy a good-quality harvest, spring frosts have caused losses of up to 80% in some eastern regions. Overall, Germany's production is anticipated to decrease by 6% compared to 2023. Portugal is also set to experience a decline, with production expected to drop by 3% due to challenges in key regions such as Douro, Lisbon, and Alentejo.
Broader Agricultural Trends: Stabilization Amid Uncertainty
Beyond wine, the European agricultural markets are showing signs of stabilization, driven by a decrease in input costs and a slowdown in food inflation. This trend could improve demand for agri-food products across most sectors. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to a range of factors, including unpredictable weather patterns, geopolitical conflicts, and the potential for animal and plant diseases.
Cereal Production: Lowest in a Decade
The EU’s cereal production in the 2024/2025 season is expected to fall to 260.9 million tonnes, marking a 7% decrease from the five-year average and the lowest level in a decade. Poor weather conditions have negatively impacted yields, particularly for crops like soft wheat and corn, while excessive rainfall has disrupted sowing. In contrast, production of oats, barley, and durum wheat has seen modest increases.
Olive Oil: A Brighter Outlook
One of the more positive developments is in the olive oil sector. After two years of poor production and high prices, output is expected to return to average levels of around 2 million tonnes in 2025. This boost in availability should lead to price reductions, increased consumption, and improved export prospects. However, it remains to be seen how quickly the market will adjust to these changes, particularly given the shifts in consumer behavior caused by the recent price surge.
Dairy, Meat, and Poultry: Varied Projections
In the dairy sector, milk supply is set to rise slightly in 2025, with cheese production expected to increase further, benefiting from competitive pricing. Meanwhile, the EU beef market is projected to contract, with production declining by 1% in 2025 and per capita consumption falling by 1.7% to 9.6 kg in 2024. African swine fever continues to pose a threat to pigmeat production, which is expected to decrease by 0.5% in 2024 and by 0.2% in 2025. Despite these challenges, the poultry sector is experiencing growth, with production expected to rise by 4% in 2024 and exports increasing by 3%, with continued growth forecast for 2025.
Conclusion: Uncertain Prospects for European Wine and Agriculture
The 2024 harvest presents a mixed picture for European wine producers. While Italy is performing relatively well compared to its competitors, it is still grappling with regional disparities in production. Other major producers, such as France and Spain, are dealing with the consequences of unfavorable weather conditions, while Germany and Portugal also face difficulties. In the broader agricultural context, positive signs of stabilization are tempered by uncertainties related to weather, geopolitical risks, and disease outbreaks, leaving the future of the EU's agricultural markets—wine included—hanging in the balance.
Source: WineNews