Brazil remains one of the most significant wine markets in Latin America, though its true size and trajectory depend heavily on how the data is defined and interpreted.
While international statistics point to stagnating or declining consumption, domestic trade figures paint a picture of a market that continues to grow in value—driven largely by imported wines and changing consumer preferences.
According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), wine consumption in Brazil reached 3.1 million hectoliters in 2024, equivalent to approximately 310 million liters. This figure marks a decline compared to previous years and falls below the country’s recent consumption average. On the surface, this suggests a cooling market. However, national trade data tells a more nuanced story.
Brazilian sources such as Ideal BI and Ideal Consulting estimate that the combined “wines and sparkling wines” market reached a value of R$19.35 billion in 2024, with a traded volume of 455.8 million liters. These figures include both domestic and imported products and show growth compared to 2023. The discrepancy between consumption data and traded volume highlights structural factors such as inventory accumulation, channel dynamics, and the strong weight of imports in market value.
Imports reached a new historical peak in 2024. Brazil imported approximately 17.7 million 9-liter cases of wine—around 159 million liters—with a total value of about USD 518 million FOB. Chile remains the dominant supplier, followed by Argentina, Portugal, France, and Italy. Chile leads both in volume and value, accounting for nearly 37% of total import value in 2023, supported by competitive pricing and strong supermarket penetration.
France, by contrast, plays a distinctly premium role. With an average import price of around USD 8 per liter, French wines are positioned well above the market average, reinforcing their importance in the higher-end segment rather than in volume-driven growth.
Data from Brazil’s official Comex Stat/MDIC system, under HS/NCM code 2204 (wines of fresh grapes), confirms Chile’s leading position and the relevance of Argentina and Portugal as strategic suppliers. Between 2018 and 2024, the average price of imported wine rose by approximately 15%, from R$47.90 to R$55.30 per liter. However, this increase failed to fully compensate for domestic inflation and the depreciation of the Brazilian real, resulting in squeezed margins for importers and distributors.
The structure of the Brazilian wine market further amplifies these pressures. Supermarkets account for more than 70% of total wine sales, giving pricing strategies and promotional intensity a decisive influence on consumer behavior. The dominance of this channel also creates a noticeable gap between sell-in volumes and actual sell-out to consumers. When supply growth outpaces retail turnover, inventory buildup becomes a recurring risk, especially in periods of slower demand.
Consumer behavior is also evolving. Between 2017 and 2024, the share of white wines increased from 20% to 26%, while rosé wines doubled from 4% to 8%. Red wines, traditionally dominant, declined from 76% to 67% of consumption. At the same time, the demographic profile of Brazilian wine drinkers is shifting. Women represented 53% of consumers in 2024, up six percentage points from 2019, while the 55–64 age group expanded to 19% of the total consumer base.
Despite domestic wines accounting for the majority of volume sold, imported fine wines dominate in value terms. Imported products generated approximately R$10.91 billion of total wine revenue in 2024, underlining Brazil’s sensitivity to exchange rates, global trade conditions, and international pricing strategies.
Looking ahead to 2035, several scenarios are being discussed within the industry. A conservative outlook anticipates a gradual decline in domestic consumption to around 2.8 million hectoliters by 2034, accompanied by moderate growth in imports. A baseline scenario foresees stable consumption with continued expansion in both volume and value. An optimistic scenario, however, suggests a structural shift toward more frequent and diversified consumption occasions, leading to stronger growth across both domestic production and imports.
Ultimately, the direction of Brazil’s wine market will depend on a combination of macroeconomic and structural factors: the real-dollar exchange rate, the sector’s ability to pass rising costs on to consumers, disciplined inventory management, and ongoing cultural shifts in consumption habits. As global exporters face challenges in traditional markets, Brazil may attract increased international attention—but whether this translates into sustainable consumption growth remains uncertain.
Source: Vinetur