The international wine trade is undergoing a fundamental transformation, shifting from a volume-driven model to one focused on value and quality.
According to Vinetur's Strategic Forecast Report: Global Wine Market Outlook 2025, published on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, the industry is navigating a complex landscape of reduced supply, changing consumer behavior, and geopolitical trade tensions that are reshaping how wine moves across borders and into consumers' glasses.
The Numbers Tell a Clear Story
Based on customs data through October, macroeconomic trends, and projections extending into the first quarter of 2026, the report reveals that international wine trade will close 2025 with total imports of EUR 34.85 billion, representing a 2.1% decline from 2024. More significantly, volume has dropped to 9.45 billion liters, a 4.2% decrease, pushing the average global price up to EUR 3.69 per liter—a 2.2% increase. Estimated global consumption stands at 212 million hectoliters, 1.1% lower than the previous year.
This market intelligence document identifies the convergence of three critical factors: a severely limited 2024 harvest, escalating costs across energy, materials, and transportation, and diminished purchasing power among the middle class. Together, these forces have created a situation where cheaper wine is being shipped less frequently, while higher-value wines command a growing share of sales.
The "Less but Better" Consumer
The report identifies a clear behavioral shift among wine consumers worldwide. They're not abandoning wine entirely, but they are recalibrating their relationship with it. Consumption occasions and volume purchased are declining, yet spending remains robust for moments consumers deem important or special.
In the United States, per capita consumption has fallen to 2.60 gallons annually from a peak of 3.16 gallons in 2021. Meanwhile, in traditional wine-producing countries like France and Italy, wine is losing its everyday table presence to beer, spirits, and ready-to-drink beverages. This erosion of routine, moderate consumption represents a fundamental shift in wine's cultural role.
United States: Tariffs Reshape the Market
The United States maintains its position as the world's leading wine market by value, with projected 2025 imports of EUR 6.95 billion, up 2.1%. However, volume tells a different story, declining 1.5% to 1.15 billion liters. The year has been dominated by the threat and subsequent implementation of additional 15% tariffs on European wines, triggering a wave of advance purchasing in the first half followed by a pronounced slowdown as wholesalers work through accumulated inventory.
Sparkling wines, particularly Champagne and Prosecco, are sustaining the market's value growth. Conversely, bulk wine is experiencing sharp declines, aided by abundant Californian production and a consumer preference for pre-bottled wines.
UK: Tax Reform Drives Product Mix Changes
The United Kingdom is navigating its own transition following excise duty reform that now levies taxes based on alcohol content. The report forecasts 2025 imports will reach EUR 4.25 billion, down 4.5%, with volume falling 6% to 1.28 billion liters.
Bottled still wines are experiencing the most significant pressure as supermarket chains prioritize maintaining psychologically important low price points for inflation-weary consumers. Bulk wine, however, is proving more resilient in value terms because it allows large bottlers to adjust alcohol content at destination, reducing their tax burden. This dynamic demonstrates how fiscal policy is directly reshaping retail assortments.
Germany: Scarcity Drives Premiumization
Germany presents a contrasting picture with EUR 2.75 billion in imports, up 4.5%, despite volume declining 1.2% to 1.35 billion liters. The country is combining economic weakness with a clearer focus on bottled wine. The shortage of cheap bulk wine in Europe following the poor 2024 harvest has forced German buyers to secure supply by paying premium prices for wines already prepared at origin, especially from Italy and Spain.
The traditionally price-sensitive German consumer has been compelled to accept higher average spending as fewer low-end options populate discount shelves.
Canada: Trade Wars Redraw Supplier Map
Canada exemplifies how trade conflicts alter supplier landscapes. The report forecasts imports will fall in value to EUR 1.78 billion, down 3.5%, while volume rises 4% to 415 million liters. Following the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on US wine, Canadian purchases from the United States have collapsed. The country has turned instead to bulk wine from Spain and Chile, despite double-digit price increases, to supply its provincial monopoly system.
The result is retail shelves stocked with more affordable wine from alternative origins, higher volumes overall, and lower average costs—at the expense of many North American brands that risk permanent removal from regular selections.
Asia: Japan's Luxury Shift and China's Technical Rebound
In Asia, Japan represents a stable market in value terms with imports of EUR 1.65 billion, up 1.5%, though volume has declined slightly to 265 million liters. Luxury wines, led by Champagne and other sparkling wines, now account for more than 60% of imported bottled wine value. The weak yen is pushing average consumers toward more efficient formats like Bag-in-Box and origins offering better price-quality ratios, such as Chile and Spain.
China is registering spectacular statistical growth with EUR 1.25 billion (+15%) and 240 million liters (+8%), but the report emphasizes this is largely a technical rebound following the return of Australian wines after the lifting of punitive tariffs. A substantial portion of these imports represents inventory replenishment rather than genuine final consumption recovery.
European Trade Hubs: Contrasting Fortunes
The Netherlands experienced a sharp volume decline to 360 million liters, down 10.5%, with value falling to EUR 1.45 billion, a 2.5% decrease. This indicates a significant drop in the cheap bulk wine previously rebottled and re-exported through Dutch facilities.
Belgium moved in the opposite direction, increasing both volume to 320 million liters (+12%) and value to EUR 1.15 billion (+3%), supported by purchases of discounted wine from neighboring countries and its role as a redistribution platform to other European markets.
High-Income Markets Adjust to Economic Uncertainty
Switzerland and Sweden illustrate how affluent markets respond to economic uncertainty and currency weakness. Swiss imports fell to EUR 1.1 billion (-6%) and 155 million liters (-3%), with marked declines in sparkling and premium bottled wines. Bulk and Bag-in-Box wines gained ground, indicating that even wealthy consumers are paying closer attention to cost per glass.
Sweden reduced volume to 195 million liters (-5%) but increased value to EUR 840 million (+2.5%), aligned with Systembolaget's strategy of promoting organic and higher value-added wines. Consumers embraced this positioning despite higher prices resulting from the weak Swedish krona.
Emerging Trends Reshaping the Industry
Beyond international trade flows, the report identifies several commercial and consumer trends fundamentally reshaping the wine industry.
The NoLo Revolution
The non-alcoholic or low-alcohol wine segment is projected to reach EUR 2.46 billion by the end of 2025, with potential for double-digit growth rates over the next decade. Technological improvements in dealcoholization methods have enabled these wines to enter restaurant and specialty retail sectors, driven by Generation Z and millennials who want to maintain wine's ritual while consuming less alcohol.
Alternative Formats Gain Ground
Bag-in-Box and other alternative formats are gaining traction in Nordic countries, Japan, and Switzerland. Increased per-liter prices and logistical challenges have highlighted packaging that optimizes weight and space during transport while offering consumers practical solutions for daily home consumption.
E-Commerce Faces Headwinds
Online wine sales are limited by sharp increases in shipping costs per bottle for direct-to-consumer transactions. Cross-border purchases are increasingly restricted to luxury wines, reinforcing the role of brick-and-mortar stores and local distributors.
Looking Ahead: A Fragmented, Regional Future
The document concludes that 2025 marks the transition from an extensive volume model to a more fragmented and regional value model. Europe is trending toward greater intra-regional trade to reduce logistical and tariff risks. North America is reorganizing following trade tensions between the United States and Canada. Asia is leveraging bilateral agreements like the one that returned Australia to the Chinese market.
Looking toward 2026, with a slightly larger but still limited harvest expected and demand that has yet to recover in volume terms, the opportunity for wineries and distributors lies in strategic adjustments. Success will require recalibrating product ranges and prices, developing credible offerings in segments like non-alcoholic wines and alternative formats, and learning to sell better rather than simply selling more liters.
The future belongs to wine businesses that understand their consumers now prioritize health, sustainability, and convenience when choosing which wine to buy and how to consume it. The era of "less but better" has arrived, and the industry must adapt accordingly.
Source: Vinetur