Wine remains the weakest link in the US alcoholic beverage market, with fresh NielsenIQ data showing sales value down 3.9% and volume down 5.6% in the four weeks ending July 18.
The decline continues a pattern that has dogged the category for months, even as the broader alcohol market shows signs that its own slide is at least no longer accelerating.
What's Driving the Drop
NielsenIQ breaks the wine decline into three components, and consumer demand is by far the biggest factor. Weaker interest from shoppers accounts for 63% of the drop, while reduced availability on store shelves — distribution has pulled back further than in recent periods — makes up 23%. The remaining 14% comes from thinner promotional activity, meaning wine brands are both harder to find and less frequently discounted right now.
Weekly numbers tell a more stable, if still soft, story: wine sales came in at $357.6 million for the week ending July 18, off just 0.8% from the week before. NielsenIQ frames this as a sign the bleeding has slowed compared with earlier in the year, even if the category hasn't found real footing.
Still Wine Drags, Sparkling Holds, Non-Alc Surges
The pain isn't evenly spread within wine. Still wine is bearing the brunt, down 4.5% in value and 6.1% in volume over the four-week window. Sparkling wine held up far better, slipping only 0.1% in value and 0.8% in volume. The standout, by a wide margin, was non-alcoholic wine, which grew 16.5% in value and 12.6% in volume — reinforcing a trend that shows up across the beer and spirits categories too.
Wine Trails the Rest of the Alcohol Market
Across the entire US alcohol market, revenue reached $9.1 billion for the four weeks, down 3.0% year-over-year, with volume falling 4.8% to 181.9 million cases. Wine posted the worst results of any major category in that stretch. Ready-to-drink cocktails were the only segment to grow in dollar terms, up 0.2% even as their volume fell 4.8%. Beer dropped 3.4% in value and 4.8% in volume, while spirits fell a matching 3.4% in value and 4.1% in volume.
NielsenIQ ties the broader cooldown to the calendar: both the Independence Day holiday and World Cup viewing, two reliable demand drivers earlier in July, had passed by the period's end, and spending eased once they did.
Regional and Channel Weakness
Every major state NielsenIQ tracks posted declines in both value and volume for total alcohol sales. Michigan fared best relatively speaking, down just 0.7% in value and 3.6% in volume. New York took the hardest hit in dollar terms, falling 6.1% in value and 7.2% in volume, while Massachusetts lost the most ground in case volume, down 7.8%. Florida had the smallest volume decline of the major markets, at 2.6%.
Retail channels were broadly weak too. Club stores saw the steepest value decline at 4.1%, with convenience and liquor stores close behind at 3.5% each. Food retail slipped 2.4% and mass retail 1.5%. The lone bright spot was a catch-all "other channels" category, up 3.0%. On volume, convenience stores led the declines at 6.4%, followed by liquor stores at 5.6%.
Winners and Losers Among Wine Producers
Gallo held onto the top spot among wine companies by sales despite a 2.9% decline and a loss of 134,800 cases. The Wine Group, in second, had a rougher period, down 10.8% and 270,800 cases. Deutsch Family, in third, was one of the few major players in the black, up 3.2% and adding 13,300 cases. Trinchero Family fell 4.7% and Delicato Family Wines dropped 6.2%.
Looking beyond the top three, growth was concentrated among a handful of names: Wagner Family Wines (+7.0%), Vineyard Brands (+6.8%), Kobrand (+3.3%, despite losing 1,000 cases), Deutsch Family (+3.2%) and Constellation (+1.9%).
By brand, Josh led dollar sales growth, up 7.4% and adding 32,800 cases, followed by LaMarca's 12.3% gain and 21,900 additional cases. Barefoot fell 4.7%, Bota dropped 4.3%, and Sutter Home declined 5.4%. The fastest-growing wine brands overall were Avaline (+41.8%), Bonanza (+23.6%), Whitehaven (+17.2%), LaMarca (+12.3%) and Josh (+7.4%).
Spirits, Beer and RTDs: A Mixed Picture Elsewhere
Spirits saw a similar demand-driven pullback, down 3.4% in value and 4.1% in volume, with NielsenIQ attributing 94% of that decline to softer demand and related trend pressures. Vodka was the weakest major spirits category, down 4.8% in value and 4.9% in volume, while tequila and whiskey posted smaller declines. Non-alcoholic spirits jumped 23.2% in value and 24.0% in volume, extending the no/low-alcohol pattern seen in wine and beer alike.
Diageo stayed the top spirits manufacturer despite a 9.1% drop and a loss of 133,800 cases; Sazerac was the standout gainer, up 8.8% and adding 56,600 cases. Among individual brands, WL Weller posted an outsized 356.3% jump, with Lalo Tequila (+48.6%), Buffalo Trace (+24.2%), Lunazul Tequila (+21.6%) and Svedka (+14.8%) also showing strong growth, while Don Julio, Crown Royal and Jack Daniel's all declined.
Beer lost the momentum it picked up around the July 4 holiday, falling 3.4% in value and 4.8% in volume, with NielsenIQ pointing to lower demand (79%) and reduced shelf availability (19%) as the main causes. Core and craft beer led the declines, down 7.5%/8.5% and 6.2%/7.7% respectively, while domestic super-premium beer bucked the trend with modest growth. Non-alcoholic beer continued its run, up 11.2% in value.
Ready-to-drink cocktails again outperformed the broader market, growing 0.2% in value even as volume slipped 4.8%. Spirits-based RTDs led that growth, up more than 21% in both value and volume, and wine-based cocktails also gained ground, while flavored malt beverages and seltzers kept losing share.
The Bottom Line
Across every category NielsenIQ tracked, the same two threads keep surfacing: traditional alcoholic beverages are losing ground to softer consumer demand, and non-alcoholic and ready-to-drink alternatives are consistently the fastest-growing parts of the market. Wine sits at the sharpest end of that shift — squeezed by weaker demand, thinner promotions and shrinking shelf space all at once — even as pockets of growth persist for a handful of brands able to buck the trend.
Source: Vinetur