The premium wine market has experienced notable shifts in the first few months of 2025, as reflected in key Liv-ex indices.
While the industry has seen increased transaction volumes, prices have generally softened, signaling changing market dynamics and shifting buyer-seller sentiment.
Liv-ex Indices Show Declines Across the Board
In February, all major Liv-ex indices recorded declines, reflecting a market correction after years of strong performance. The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100, often regarded as the benchmark index for the industry, dropped 0.8% to close at 323.51. While this remains 2.2% above its 2018 peak, the level now serves as a critical support point.
Looking at a broader market view, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000, which tracks a wider selection of premium wines, fell 1.1% to close at 358.8. The biggest contrast came from the Bordeaux Legends 40, which tracks the performance of older Bordeaux vintages. It was the only sub-index to show positive movement, rising 0.9%, while the Fine Wine 50, which focuses on First Growths from the ten most recent physical vintages, declined by 1.4%.
Increased Market Activity and Discounted Transactions
Despite price declines, the luxury wine trade has been increasingly active in early 2025. Sellers have taken a more prominent role, leading to a rise in transaction volumes. Compared to the same period in 2024:
- The number of transactions increased by 17.4%
- Trading volume surged by 31.6%
- Transaction value grew by 6.3%
The data suggests that sellers are more motivated to move stock, potentially due to financial pressures, while buyers are exercising greater caution, demanding larger discounts before making purchases.
Bordeaux: 2021 Vintage Dominates Trade
Bordeaux has seen notable activity, particularly for 2021 wines, which were initially undervalued but now make up the majority of trade volume. The latest transaction data reveals that all 2021 Bordeaux wines are trading at just 3.8% above ex-château prices, suggesting restrained price growth and cautious investor sentiment.
Burgundy: Increased Trade Volume, Lower Prices
Burgundy’s annual report, published last month, highlights a significant shift in trading trends:
- Regional wines now represent 48.2% of Burgundy’s trade volume, up from 39.4% last year.
- Grand Cru trade prices have fallen steadily over the past six months.
- Premier Cru prices have remained stable but are still 23.5% below March 2020 levels and 44.7% below their peak.
- Sellers have driven 69.9% of regional Burgundy transactions, indicating a clearance of lower-value stock.
The increased trading activity at the lower end of the Burgundy market raises questions about its overall impact. While it signals demand for more accessible wines, it does little to offset declines in high-end Burgundy prices.
Champagne Sees a Surge in Trade Volume
While other regions have seen price corrections, Champagne trade has more than doubled in volume compared to last year. Major brands leading this increase include:
- Perrier-Jouët Belle Époque 2015
- Dom Pérignon (trade volume up 158.8%)
- Louis Roederer (trade volume up 68.4%)
This surge suggests continued strong demand for luxury Champagne despite broader market softening.
Spain: Vega-Sicilia Drives Market Growth
The Spanish fine wine market has seen strong momentum, largely driven by Vega-Sicilia. Over the past 12 months, the brand’s trade volume has expanded significantly, standing out as a key growth factor in Spain’s premium wine sector.
Liv-ex Market Insights: A Global Perspective
Liv-ex’s data reflects real-time activity from its 620+ merchant members worldwide, representing the largest global liquidity pool in the fine wine trade. Currently, Liv-ex holds GBP 100 million (EUR 119 million) in bids and offers across 20,000 wines, offering a unique insight into the evolving market landscape.
As we move further into 2025, these early-year trends suggest a market that is adapting to economic pressures, with increasing transaction volumes, cautious buyers, and a shift in demand towards certain categories and regions. Whether this trend continues or stabilizes will depend on broader financial conditions and investor sentiment in the coming months.
Source: Vinetur