The global wine industry is entering a profound structural transformation in 2025, marked by a paradox: while consumption and production volumes continue to fall, market value remains resilient thanks to the trend toward premiumization.
According to the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine consumption in 2024 fell to 214.2 million hectoliters, the lowest level since 1961, down 3.3% from the previous year. Production declined to 225.8 million hectoliters (–4.8%), with severe losses in the United States (–17.2%), China (–17%), Chile (–15.6%), and Germany (–9.8%), largely due to extreme weather events linked to climate change.
At the same time, consumption is under pressure from economic factors and shifting consumer behavior, especially among younger generations who are increasingly adopting moderation. Key markets have contracted significantly: China (–19.3%), the US (–5.8%), and Canada (–6.4%).
This dual contraction exposes the weaknesses of a model traditionally based on volume. In response, producers and distributors are focusing on value maximization through premium offerings, rationalized assortments, and stronger brand positioning.
Key Dynamics Shaping the Market
- Premiumization: Consumers demand not only higher quality but also authenticity, sustainability, and unique experiences.
- Distribution Restructuring: Consolidation among large distributors contrasts with the rise of specialty retailers, opening opportunities for curated portfolios.
- Technology: ERP, OMS, and analytics enable inventory transparency, demand forecasting, and hyperlocal strategies. Blockchain and NFC ensure authenticity in premium wines.
- NOLO Growth: No-and-Low-Alcohol wines are expanding at double-digit rates, supported by advances in production technology.
- Sustainability: From lighter packaging to circular logistics models, sustainability is now a baseline expectation.
- Assortment Management: Data-driven SKU rationalization improves profitability and reduces consumer confusion.
- Logistics: “Small drop” deliveries in urban areas require optimization via route planning software and micro-warehousing.
Implications for Producers and Distributors
The evolution of the sector requires multi-channel strategies:
- Core brands managed by national distributors.
- Limited editions positioned with specialty retailers.
- Direct-to-consumer sales for exclusivity.
At the same time, staff training and customer experience become competitive levers, supported by themed tastings, pairing menus, and personalized loyalty programs.
The global wine sector in 2025 is no longer defined by volumes but by the ability to deliver premium, authentic, and sustainable value to consumers. Those who can integrate creativity, technology, and resilience will lead in this new era of wine.
Source: Vinetur