In its latest report, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) estimates world wine consumption in 2024 at 214.2 million hectolitres (mhl), marking a 3.3% decrease compared to 2023.
If confirmed, this would represent the lowest volume recorded since 1961, underscoring a significant and persistent decline in global demand for wine.
A Downward Spiral Since 2018
The global reduction in wine consumption is not an isolated incident but part of a broader trend that began in 2018. Key contributors include a steady decline in Chinese consumption—a loss of roughly 2 mhl annually—and the impact of COVID-19, which drastically disrupted traditional consumption patterns through lockdowns and a closure of hospitality venues.
The brief rebound of 2021, fuelled by the reopening of the HoReCa sector and increased social gatherings, was short-lived. By 2022, economic stressors including the war in Ukraine, energy crises, and supply chain disruptions led to higher wine production costs. These were passed on to consumers, whose purchasing power was already diminished by global inflation.
2024: A Year of Challenges and Transition
The challenges from 2023 spilled into 2024, with 15 out of the top 20 wine markets experiencing further consumption declines. Rising average prices—driven by low production volumes and persistent inflation—exacerbated the situation. Despite these conditions, some markets remained resilient, though the global picture remained bleak.
Structural Shifts Beyond Economics
The OIV report points not only to temporary economic and geopolitical disruptions but also to structural, long-term changes. Shifting consumer habits, evolving social norms, and generational changes have altered the perception and consumption of wine, particularly in mature markets. These societal shifts, when combined with today’s volatile economic environment, help explain the depth and breadth of the current decline.
European Union: Still the Largest, But Declining
The EU remains the world’s largest wine-consuming region, accounting for 103.6 mhl in 2024—or 48% of global consumption. However, this figure represents a 2.8% year-on-year decrease, and a 5.2% drop compared to the five-year average.
- France leads Europe with 23.0 mhl, despite a 3.6% decrease from 2023.
- Italy remains stable at 22.3 mhl, but still 3.6% below its five-year average.
- Germany fell to 17.8 mhl, a 3.0% drop.
Interestingly, Spain (+1.2%) and Portugal (+0.5%) recorded modest increases, with Portugal surpassing its pre-pandemic average. Meanwhile, the Netherlands (-8.1%), Romania (-11%), and Austria (-2.6%) all experienced noticeable declines, though Hungary rebounded +7.5%, returning to pre-2020 levels.
Global Insights: A Widespread Decline
North America
- USA, the largest global wine market, shrank 5.8% to 33.3 mhl.
- Canada declined 6.4%, continuing a four-year downward streak.
Asia
- China’s consumption plummeted 19.3% to 5.5 mhl, continuing a long-term contraction.
- Japan declined 4.4%, reaching its lowest level since 2011.
South America
- Argentina posted its lowest consumption since 1942 at 7.7 mhl (-1.2%).
- Brazil saw a 4.3% decline, yet remains just above pre-pandemic levels.
Africa
- South Africa consumed 4.3 mhl (-2.8%), still its third-highest level ever.
Oceania
- Australia remained stable at 5.3 mhl, showing consistent consumption over the past 15 years.
The Road Ahead
While short-term factors such as inflation, geopolitical conflict, and production costs continue to exert downward pressure, it’s the underlying shifts in consumer behaviour that may shape the future of the wine market. The intersection of economic instability with long-term societal changes presents a complex, multi-layered challenge for producers, retailers, and policymakers alike.
Understanding and adapting to these shifts—whether through product innovation, pricing strategy, or market diversification—will be essential for navigating this historic low in wine consumption.
Source: OIV