As the world of fine wine enters 2025, the trend that marked the final months of 2024 persists: a downturn in collectible wines, reflected in the performance of Liv-Ex's key market indices.
The Liv-Ex platform, a leading reference point for the secondary market of fine wines, shows that the overall market is still in decline. Despite this, there’s a small sign of hope for Italian wines, as the Italy 100 index demonstrates a slight positive movement in January 2025, a rare flicker of growth in a generally negative landscape.
Liv-Ex 100 and Liv-Ex 1000: A Year of Losses
The Liv-Ex 100, the benchmark index for fine wines, posted a -0.4% decrease in January 2025 alone. When considered over the past year, the overall loss stands at a more significant -9.2%. This downward trend includes some of Italy's most iconic wines, such as the Barolo by Bartolo Mascarello (2019), Barolo Monfortino Riserva by Giacomo Conterno (2014-2015), and the renowned Sassicaia (2018-2020) from Tenuta San Guido. Other wines from producers like Antinori, Frescobaldi, and Biondi-Santi also saw their values dip, reflecting the broader market trends.
The larger Liv-Ex 1000 index, which tracks 1,000 wines, was also affected, with a -0.9% drop in January 2025. This loss accumulates to a -10.5% decline over the past 12 months, further signaling the ongoing struggles of the market. The continuing decreases are evident across all the major French sub-indices, including Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, Rhone, and even the broader Champagne category, with most indices reporting drops close to -1% month on month and around -10% over the last year.
The Sole Positive Trend: Italy 100 Index
Amid the sea of red, there is one small exception: the Italy 100 index, which tracks a curated selection of Italian wines, managed to show a modest uptick of +0.6% in January. However, this positive shift still represents a -5.6% drop over the past 12 months. Wines that contributed to the Italy 100 index include some of Italy’s finest offerings, such as multiple vintages of Barolo by Bartolo Mascarello and Barbaresco by Gaia, alongside Sassicaia, Solaia, and Masseto from the Frescobaldi family. Despite this slight growth, the broader market sentiment remains negative, with fine wine investors seeking stability after a challenging 2024.
Market Outlook for 2025
As we move further into 2025, all eyes will be on whether the Italian wine market can continue to show signs of recovery, or if the broader downward trend will persist. While Italian wines have demonstrated some resilience in the face of global market pressures, the overall fine wine market faces a tough challenge ahead, with inflation and broader economic uncertainties likely to continue shaping the landscape for collectible wines.
Conclusion
The fine wine market’s 2025 opening mirrors its 2024 conclusion—on a downward trajectory. The majority of Liv-Ex indices continue their decline, with Italy's performance offering a rare moment of cautious optimism. Collectors and investors alike will need to stay attuned to market movements as the year unfolds, watching whether the positive signal from Italian wines can spark a broader recovery in the fine wine sector.
Source: WineNews