After nearly two years of steady correction, the global fine wine market is beginning to show signs of recovery.
According to data released by Liv-ex, the leading global platform for secondary wine trading, several of its major indices recorded their strongest monthly gains since September 2022.
The Liv-ex 1000 Index, the broadest measure of the fine wine market, posted its first increase since March 2023. Of its components, 589 wines maintained or increased their prices, signaling that market stabilization may be underway.
Indices Strengthen as Sentiment Improves
In September, Liv-ex’s key benchmarks — the Fine Wine 50, Fine Wine 100, and Fine Wine 1000 — all rose simultaneously, suggesting renewed investor and collector confidence. A key indicator of sentiment, the Liv-ex 100 bid:offer ratio, climbed to 0.70, its highest level since April 2023.
This ratio measures the balance between buying and selling interest. Historically, when the ratio rises above 0.5, it indicates stronger demand and often precedes price increases. According to Liv-ex’s proprietary model, the market is expected to record only a slight decline of 0.6% over the next two months, a modest correction compared with the volatility seen in 2023–2024.
These trends point to the possibility that the fine wine market is turning a corner, moving away from the deep corrections that followed the 2021–2022 surge.
European Buyers Lead the Recovery
A notable element behind the recent market improvement has been the renewed strength of European buyers. In September, their market share climbed to 39.5% of total transactions, the highest since August 2022. European purchasing activity increased by 36% month-on-month, contributing to overall growth in transaction value (+9.5%), number of trades (+4.2%), and volume (+6.4%), effectively returning to pre-tariff levels.
According to Romain Grudzinski, Head of European Markets at Liv-ex, “the market is beginning to stabilize after a prolonged period of price correction.” However, he cautions that challenges remain, particularly regarding unsold stock from recent en primeur campaigns. Many merchants continue to sell below their initial purchase price, even as Bordeaux-related indices begin to recover and bid:offer ratios strengthen.
Most Traded Wines: Classic Names Dominate
September’s trading activity was characterized by demand for iconic international labels across Bordeaux, Tuscany, and Napa Valley.
The most traded wines by value included:
- Château Lafite Rothschild 2020 (Pauillac, Premier Cru Classé) – 4,178 GBP (approx. 4,900 EUR) per case
- Sassicaia Tenuta San Guido 2021 (Bolgheri DOC) – 2,110 GBP (approx. 2,470 EUR) per case
- Solaia 2021 (Toscana IGT) – 2,300 GBP (approx. 2,690 EUR) per case
- Opus One 2021 (Napa Valley) – 2,600 GBP (approx. 3,040 EUR) per case
In terms of volume, activity was driven by accessible yet prestigious labels, such as Piper-Heidsieck Rare Luminous 2013, Dominio de Pingus Psi Ribera del Duero 2022, and Antinori Cervaro della Sala Umbria 2023.
Champagne continues to play a vital role in secondary market activity, representing 16% of total transactions in September, with over 2 million GBP (approx. 2.34 million EUR) in active offers across major houses.
Bid:Offer Ratios Signal Possible Stabilization
Liv-ex data show a strong correlation between the bid:offer ratio and future price movements. When the ratio reaches or exceeds 1.0, it typically precedes price stability or appreciation within the next two months. Current readings suggest moderate optimism:
- Liv-ex 100 bid:offer ratio: 0.70 — indicating positive sentiment
- Champagne 50 bid:offer ratio: 0.51 — suggesting short-term stability
While Liv-ex forecasts slight declines across most sub-indices in the coming months, these movements are expected to remain minimal compared with the sharp fluctuations of the previous three years.
Market Outlook: Correction Nears Its End
The last quarter of 2025 could mark the beginning of a new phase for the premium wine market. Trading activity has diversified beyond Bordeaux and Burgundy, with increased interest in Champagne, Tuscany, and U.S. wines — all of which are benefiting from stable pricing and consumer loyalty.
The data suggest that the correction phase of the fine wine market may be reaching its conclusion. If European demand remains strong and liquidity continues to improve, Liv-ex indices could enter a period of consolidation and gradual growth in early 2026.
After months of uncertainty, the fine wine sector appears to be moving from contraction to cautious optimism, with improved sentiment among collectors, merchants, and investors alike.
Source: Vinetur