E-commerce for alcoholic beverages is on track for significant growth across the world's major markets, with IWSR forecasting that online sales in 18 key countries will top $36 billion by 2028 — roughly $6 billion higher than five years earlier.
The figure, based on the data firm's proprietary methodology, offers a useful gauge of the digital channel's scale, though it doesn't capture every online alcohol purchase globally, since it's built around a defined set of markets: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, the UK, and the US. The snapshot reflects data as of September 18, and deliberately avoids treating any single country as representative of the sector as a whole.
The forecast arrives at a moment when digital commerce could grow in importance even as overall drinking habits stay flat. IWSR's 2026 projections suggest global alcohol consumption in 2035 will sit about 1% below 2025 levels, despite the legal-drinking-age population expanding by roughly 9% over the same period. Much of that consumption decline is expected in mature markets — China, the US, Germany, Japan, and the UK — while countries like India, Mexico, Vietnam, and Colombia are expected to gain share internationally.
This dynamic helps explain one of the more interesting undercurrents in the data: e-commerce can keep growing its slice of the pie even in a market that's flat or shrinking overall. Rising online sales aren't purely a function of people drinking more; convenience, broader product selection, easier price comparison, and a shift toward higher-value categories all play a role.
That growth, however, isn't spread evenly. IWSR points to two dominant hubs driving the expansion: large online marketplaces in China and omnichannel retail in the United States. Chinese marketplaces alone are expected to add $1.9 billion in sales by 2028. Smaller but meaningful channels are also taking shape in Japan, Australia, and Mexico, three markets expected to contribute some of the largest gains outside China and the US. Italy, meanwhile, is growing quickly in percentage terms from a smaller starting point — the firm estimates the country added close to half a million new online alcohol buyers in 2024 alone.
Country-level trends underscore just how differently this channel is evolving. In the US, IWSR's third-quarter 2024 tracking found the share of online alcohol buyers rose four percentage points, while the share of consumers buying online on a weekly basis jumped 13 points. The UK moved in the opposite direction, with online sales pulling back after the unusually high base set during the pandemic — though IWSR expects growth to resume there starting in 2026.
That contrast is a reminder that no single penetration rate can capture the state of online alcohol sales worldwide. Differences in shopping habits, distribution infrastructure, and the strength of physical retail networks mean the channel is developing at very different speeds, even among countries with comparably advanced digital markets.
The internet's role isn't limited to completing transactions, either — it's increasingly shaping how people decide what to buy. IWSR found that 63% of online alcohol buyers researched extensively before purchasing, and 24% used online channels specifically to discover new brands. That points to real value in platforms that go beyond fulfillment to organize product information, surface reviews, enable comparisons, and turn browsing into a sale.
Looking ahead by category, IWSR expects spirits to lead digital growth, while wine and beer follow more modest, steady trajectories. That tracks with the economics facing many international spirits retailers: a higher-priced bottle can better absorb the costs tied to packaging, shipping, insurance, taxes, and customs paperwork than a lower-value case of beer — one reason cross-border spirits specialists tend to see stronger margins than operators in other categories.
Taken together, IWSR's analysis suggests the industry has moved past the explosive early-2010s adoption curve and settled into a phase where e-commerce is simply becoming part of how the business operates. Within that steadier phase, a range of models are coexisting — from Chinese marketplaces to US omnichannel supermarkets, social-commerce sales, fast delivery services, and cross-border specialists — each suited to different buying occasions and shaped by the distinct habits found across China, the US, the UK, Italy, and Mexico.
Source: Vinetur