According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine production in 2024 is projected to approach one of its lowest levels in six decades.
During its 45th congress held in Dijon, France, the OIV shared preliminary estimates indicating that this year's production could fall below 250 million hectolitres. This forecast is based on data from major wine-producing countries, which account for approximately 75% of global output, including Italy, Spain, France, the United States, and several Southern Hemisphere nations.
Adverse Weather Conditions Impact Production
John Barker, the Director General of the OIV, attributed the decline in production primarily to adverse weather conditions. The previous year, 2023, recorded a global volume of 237 million hectolitres, marking the lowest output since 1961. Key factors contributing to this downturn included droughts, heatwaves, early frosts, and flooding—extreme weather phenomena that have persisted into 2024, significantly affecting some of the world's most renowned wine regions.
Although the OIV is set to release more comprehensive statistics at the end of November in celebration of its centenary, early trends suggest that low production levels are likely to continue. Some countries that experienced significant difficulties in 2023, such as Spain, Italy, Australia, and Argentina, have seen slight improvements in 2024, yet their outputs remain below historical averages.
Regional Disparities in Production
The situation varies significantly across regions. France, for instance, has been severely impacted by excessive rainfall, leading to challenging conditions for its wine producers. In Chile, which already recorded a slight production decline in 2023, the situation has worsened this year, further straining its wine sector.
Conversely, some countries have managed to produce slightly more than in the previous year, yet these increases have not been enough to restore production to typical levels. This underscores the ongoing volatility in wine production, which is heavily influenced by climatic factors.
Climate Change and Its Implications
The congress highlighted climate change as a central theme, emphasizing the wine industry's growing vulnerability to extreme weather events. Variability in production is not a new phenomenon, as Barker noted while presenting a graph showing the evolution of global wine production over the past century. Traditionally, production fluctuated between 250 and 300 million hectolitres, with different regions compensating for each other's losses. However, the drop below this minimum threshold in 2023 signifies a potential turning point for the industry.
The persistent reduction in production is largely attributed to the impact of global warming, which alters weather patterns in unpredictable ways and presents significant challenges for winegrowers. In this context, the OIV and industry experts have also pointed out that changing consumer preferences are influencing the market. As interest in new markets and products grows, the demand for traditional wines may shift, complicating the landscape for wine producers.
Source: OIV