Moldova's wine industry is experiencing a significant correction in 2025, with export volumes and values declining substantially after reaching historic peaks in 2024.
According to data from the National Office of Vine and Wine (ONVV), the country exported 107.4 million liters of wine products worth USD 190.4 million during the first eleven months of 2025—representing a 20% drop in volume and 12% decline in value compared to the same period last year.
The contraction follows an exceptional 2024 that saw Moldova's wine exports surge to their highest levels in a decade, suggesting the current downturn may represent a market correction rather than a fundamental shift in the industry's trajectory.
Geographic Performance: A Tale of Diverging Markets
Moldova's wine exports reached 70 countries worldwide during the January-November 2025 period, with the top 10 markets accounting for 79% of total export value and 81% of volume. However, performance varied dramatically across regions.
Regional Export Performance (Jan-Nov 2025)
| Region | Share of Value | Value (million USD) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 59% | 112.6 | +3% |
| CIS | 25% | 46.7 | +6% |
| America | 8% | 14.3 | -72% |
| Asia | 5% | 8.8 | -3% |
| Africa | 4% | 7.9 | +69% |
| Oceania | 0.01% | 0.028 | — |
Europe remains Moldova's dominant export destination, absorbing 59% of the country's wine exports by value. The region posted modest growth of 3%, demonstrating resilience amid broader market challenges. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) proved even more robust, growing 6% year-over-year and representing a quarter of Moldova's total wine export value.
The standout performer was Africa, which recorded remarkable 69% growth, albeit from a relatively small base of USD 7.9 million. This suggests emerging opportunities for Moldovan wines in previously underdeveloped markets.
However, these gains were overshadowed by a catastrophic 72% collapse in the Americas market, which fell from a significant contributor to just 8% of export value. This dramatic decline raises questions about market access, competition, or strategic shifts in Moldova's largest Western Hemisphere market.
Product Mix: Premium Spirits Outperform Table Wines
The composition of Moldova's wine exports reveals an interesting dynamic between volume and value across product categories.
Export Breakdown by Product Category
| Category | Volume Share | Value Share | Value Premium* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Still Wines | 79% | 63% | 0.80x |
| Divin & Distillates | 12% | 24% | 2.00x |
| Vermouth | 4% | 5% | 1.25x |
| Fortified Wines | 3% | 4% | 1.33x |
| Sparkling Wine | 2% | 4% | 2.00x |
*Value Premium = (Value Share ÷ Volume Share)
Still wines continue to dominate Moldova's wine exports, representing 79% of volume. However, the category's relatively lower value contribution (63%) suggests competitive pricing pressure in this segment.
The star performers are Divin and distillates—Moldova's signature brandy products—which represent just 12% of export volume but command 24% of total export value. This 2:1 value-to-volume ratio indicates that premium spirits fetch approximately double the per-liter price of still wines, highlighting a potential strategic opportunity for Moldova to emphasize higher-margin products.
Sparkling wines also punch above their weight, contributing 4% of value from just 2% of volume, though the category remains relatively small in absolute terms.
Top Markets: Romania's Dominance Grows
Romania continues to dominate Moldova's wine export landscape, accounting for more than one-third of total export value—a position that has actually strengthened despite the overall market contraction.
Top 10 Export Markets (Bottled Wines)
| Rank | Country | Share of Value | Share of Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Romania | 34.3% | 26.4% |
| 2 | USA | 10.2% | 11.9% |
| 3 | Poland | 6.1% | 7.3% |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 6.1% | 8.2% |
| 5 | Netherlands | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 6 | Ukraine | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| 7 | Nigeria | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| 8 | Canada | 3.0% | 3.6% |
| 9 | China | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| 10 | Turkey | 2.1% | 3.8% |
| — | Others | 22.3% | 24.1% |
Romania's 34.3% share of export value (26.4% of volume) underscores both the strength of this bilateral trade relationship and Moldova's vulnerability to potential disruptions in this single market. The discrepancy between value and volume shares suggests Moldovan producers are commanding premium prices in the Romanian market.
The United States holds second place with 10.2% of export value, though this represents a significant decline from 2024 as part of the broader Americas market collapse. Poland and the Czech Republic are tied for third place at 6.1% each, highlighting Central Europe's importance to Moldova's export strategy.
Nigeria's positioning is noteworthy—it represents 3.8% of value from just 2.4% of volume, indicating premium pricing in this African market and validating the continent's growth potential.
Historical Context: Understanding the 2025 Decline
Placing 2025's performance in historical context provides crucial perspective on the current downturn.
10-Year Export Performance (Jan-Nov periods)
| Year | Volume (Mln. Liters) | YoY Change | Value (Mln. $) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 126.8 | — | 133.5 | — |
| 2017 | 114.0 | -10% | 130.2 | -2% |
| 2018 | 133.0 | +17% | 132.9 | +2% |
| 2019 | 150.5 | +13% | 143.5 | +8% |
| 2020 | 153.8 | +2% | 126.6 | -12% |
| 2021 | 142.7 | -7% | 110.1 | -13% |
| 2022 | 152.0 | +7% | 96.8 | -12% |
| 2023 | 141.4 | -7% | 113.3 | +17% |
| 2024 | 173.9 | +23% | 217.4 | +92% |
| 2025 | 107.4 | -20% | 190.4 | -12% |
| 10-Year Avg | 122.1 | — | 156.9 | — |
The data reveals that 2024 was an extraordinary outlier, with volume increasing 23% and value surging an unprecedented 92% compared to 2023. This exceptional performance—which pushed exports well above the 10-year average of 122.1 million liters and $156.9 million—appears unsustainable in retrospect.
Despite 2025's decline, export values remain 21% above the decade-long average, suggesting the industry has achieved a higher baseline than historical norms. Volume, however, has fallen 12% below the 10-year average, indicating structural challenges in maintaining market share.
The volatile pattern over the past decade—with significant swings in both directions—reflects Moldova's wine industry exposure to geopolitical factors, exchange rate fluctuations, and shifting trade relationships, particularly concerning markets in the former Soviet Union.
Strategic Implications and Future Outlook
Several key insights emerge from the 2025 export data:
Market Concentration Risk: With Romania accounting for over one-third of exports and the top 10 markets representing nearly 80% of value, Moldova faces significant concentration risk. Any disruption in key relationships could severely impact the industry.
Premium Positioning Opportunity: The strong performance of Divin and sparkling wines suggests Moldova should emphasize quality over quantity, focusing on higher-margin products that can command premium prices in developed markets.
Geographic Diversification: While reaching 70 countries demonstrates breadth, the dramatic decline in the Americas and modest growth in emerging markets like Africa indicate unrealized potential for geographic expansion.
Post-Peak Adjustment: The 2025 decline appears to represent a correction after 2024's exceptional performance rather than a fundamental industry crisis. However, restoring volume growth while maintaining improved price points will be the industry's central challenge in 2026.
The Moldovan wine industry stands at a crossroads. While 2025's contraction following 2024's boom may be concerning, the sector has demonstrated resilience and maintained value levels well above historical averages. Success in the coming years will depend on strategic market diversification, continued premium positioning, and navigating the geopolitical complexities that have long shaped Moldova's wine trade.
Source: ONVV