After years of turbulence, the global on-trade is showing decisive signs of recovery.
Once the epicenter of social life and consumption occasions, bars and restaurants were hit hard by the pandemic, inflation, and dramatic changes in consumer habits. Now, however, new data from the IWSR suggests that this crucial channel is regaining momentum — and that better insight is finally within reach.
A Revival in Numbers: The Return to Bars and Restaurants
The latest Bevtrac consumer research from IWSR, conducted in September 2024, shows a marked shift in consumer behavior toward more frequent on-trade consumption. This isn't just a blip — it's a global trend:
- China: Up from 58% to 64% of consumers saying their last drink was on-trade.
- UK: 35% to 40%.
- Mexico: 34% to 40%.
- Germany: 27% to 33%.
- US: 31% to 34%.
- Canada: 19% to 24%.
- Italy: 43% to 48%.
These increases, while varied, signal renewed confidence in social experiences and out-of-home consumption. Millennials in particular — long viewed as experience-driven consumers — are leading the charge. And they’re not just going out; they’re exploring, spending, and trading up, particularly in categories like whisky and sparkling wine.
“After years of disruption, the on-trade channel is showing signs of revival in key countries, driving a long-awaited note of optimism for the global beverage alcohol market,” says Richard Halstead, COO Consulting & Consumer Insights at IWSR.
The Visibility Challenge: A Blind Spot in Global Beverage Strategy
Despite the on-trade's rebound, there’s a fundamental problem: a lack of reliable, comparable data. While volume figures exist, they don’t capture the value — how much money consumers are actually spending in the on-trade — across global markets. Traditional tracking systems struggle to align regional data sources, which differ in methodology, coverage, and quality.
“Coverage of beverage alcohol in the global on-trade is notoriously patchy,” says Xian Wang, Chief Product Officer at IWSR. “Local markets may have some sources, such as wholesalers or distributors, but stitching these together is painful.”
This lack of standardised, granular value data has hindered brands, distributors, and investors. Decision-making is often based on assumptions, analogies, or anecdotal evidence. The result? Missed opportunities and inefficient deployment of resources.
IWSR’s New Solution: Bringing Clarity to the Chaos
Launching in May 2025, IWSR’s new on-trade value product aims to deliver the missing piece: a standardised, detailed view of consumer expenditure in the on-trade across 25 key global markets. These include major economies like China, the US, the UK, Brazil, and Germany, along with emerging players like Colombia, Thailand, and South Korea.
How does it work?
- Menu data capture: IWSR collects pricing from a representative sample of bars and restaurants across price bands (low, mid, high) and regions (urban, city, rural).
- Price multipliers: These are then combined with volume data to estimate actual consumer expenditure.
- Granularity: The data breaks down spending by price tier and venue type, enabling precise segmentation.
This approach helps producers and marketers understand not just where volume is growing — but where value is concentrated. In a time when premiumisation and margin management are essential, this visibility is invaluable.
On-Trade in Action: Category Deep Dives
The new data isn’t just theoretical — it offers immediate, actionable insight into consumer preferences and market dynamics.
Agave Spirits
- Australia: Dominated by premium and super-premium segments.
- France: A small but highly premiumised category.
- Poland & Brazil: Concentrated in premium pricing.
- UK: Penetrates all price tiers; interestingly, more value flows through restaurants than bars.
Sparkling Wine
- UK: Mostly consumed in super-premium and above categories, with value driven by mid-range venues.
- France: Balanced between standard and super-premium consumption.
Whisky vs. Cane in Brazil
Brazil's cane spirit (cachaça) still dominates in volume and value, but the tide is turning. Whisky — particularly in the premium tier — is gaining traction as consumer preferences evolve. This kind of shift would be hard to detect without detailed value segmentation.
Strategic Implications: What This Means for the Industry
With this new level of insight, industry stakeholders can:
- Tailor product assortments by country, venue type, and price tier.
- Support on-trade operators more effectively, focusing on high-potential categories and optimal price bands.
- Optimise marketing and sales investment, grounding decisions in data, not gut feeling.
- Identify premiumisation trends, including where experimentation and higher spend are most likely to occur.
The channel’s recovery may still be underway, but one thing is clear: the on-trade is no longer a black box. For the first time, stakeholders have a roadmap — and that could redefine growth strategies for the entire beverage alcohol industry.
Source: IWSR