Italian wine exports in the first half of 2025 present a nuanced picture: overall resilience in global markets, despite geopolitical headwinds, tariffs, and uneven consumer demand.
According to Istat data and the latest Nomisma Wine Monitor Report, Italian wines recorded a modest overall increase across the world’s 12 most important markets, outperforming the global average despite clear risks on the horizon.
Italy Holds Steady in a Shifting Global Market
From January to June 2025, Italian wine exports rose +1.5% in value (EUR 2.8 billion) and +2.1% in volume (703.5 million litres). This compares favourably to total global wine imports across the same markets, which increased +1.4% in value (EUR 10.6 billion) but fell -1.3% in volume (2.8 billion litres).
The numbers confirm that Italian producers continue to hold their ground, even in a fragmented market marked by differing national trajectories.
The United States: Growth Driven by Stockpiling
The U.S. remains Italy’s most important destination, though the story is complex. In the first quarter of 2025, imports soared +22%, driven by stockpiling ahead of Trump’s 15% tariffs. However, the second quarter saw a sharp reversal, with imports falling -7%, leaving Italy with only modest half-year growth (+2.5% in value to EUR 1.05 billion, +7.5% in volume to 188.9 million litres).
As Denis Pantini of Nomisma Wine Monitor explains, the legal uncertainty around tariffs means wineries must stay alert to alternative markets capable of absorbing production should the U.S. outlook worsen.
Winners and Losers in Other Key Markets
Italian wines performed unevenly across other leading destinations:
- Canada: Strong growth (+11% in value to EUR 206.3 million) as Italian wines benefited from a sharp drop in U.S. labels (down over 65%) due to retaliatory tariffs.
- Germany: A clear rebound after last year’s difficulties (+10.3% in value to EUR 522 million, +1.8% in volume).
- United Kingdom: Decline of -7.3% (EUR 452.5 million), reflecting weaker demand and a volatile trading environment.
- Switzerland (-3.6%), France (-5.6%), Norway (-4.1%), China (-8.5%), and South Korea (-5.9%) all reported negative trends.
- Japan (+0.7%), Australia (+7.1%), and Brazil (+7.9%) showed encouraging growth, underscoring the importance of diversifying beyond traditional European and U.S. markets.
Still vs. Sparkling: Mixed Signals
Italian sparkling wines, long a growth driver, slowed in early 2025, rising just +0.8% in value (EUR 748.2 million) across the 12 monitored markets. Japan (+12%), the U.S. (+6.7%), and China (+6.3%) remained dynamic, while the U.K. (-6.6%), France (-2.4%), and Australia (-4.4%) slipped.
Still wines, however, proved more resilient, reaching EUR 1.9 billion (+2.1%). Germany (+14.2%), Canada (+12.4%), and Brazil (+10.4%) stood out as positive markets, while the U.K. (-8.1%) and China (-10.5%) dragged results downward.
Risks on the Horizon
Pantini cautions that a contraction in the U.S. market could seriously impact Italian exports, given the country’s central role in global wine trade. Slowing domestic consumption in the U.S. adds further concern.
While other markets show promise, their absorption capacity is more limited, and expansion into new regions requires long-term investments and strategies. For Italian wineries, diversification is not optional but a strategic necessity to weather future volatility.
Outlook
The first half of 2025 confirms Italian wine’s resilience in an increasingly complex and fragmented international market. Yet the sector faces clear challenges: U.S. tariff risks, stagnation in mature European markets, and the need to develop new outlets. Success in the coming years will depend on adaptability, brand strength, and strategic global expansion.
Source: WineNews