The latest 2026 Restaurant Report by Fipe-Confcommercio, presented in Rome, paints a nuanced picture of Italy’s foodservice industry—one that combines resilience and growth with deep structural challenges.
Despite a complex backdrop marked by economic slowdown and global geopolitical tensions, the sector showed moderate progress in 2025. Consumption increased, added value strengthened, and entrepreneurs expressed cautious optimism. Yet beneath this positive surface lies a fragile ecosystem struggling with closures, labor shortages, and declining productivity.
A Market Growing—But Under Pressure
In 2025, the Italian restaurant sector counted 324,436 active businesses, reflecting a slight contraction of -1% compared to the previous year. The decline was more pronounced among bars, which dropped by -2.2%, while restaurants proved more resilient with a marginal -0.4% decrease.
At the same time, niche segments such as banqueting, catering, and prepared meal services stood out, growing by +3.5%. This shift highlights an evolving market where flexibility and diversification are increasingly key to survival.
However, business turnover remains high and concerning. With over 10,000 new openings but more than 25,000 closures, the sector recorded a negative balance of over 15,000 businesses. Nearly half of all new ventures fail within five years—an indicator of structural weaknesses tied to rising costs, complex management, and insufficient entrepreneurial expertise.
Consumption Rises, But Volumes Lag Behind
One of the most striking trends is the continued growth in out-of-home consumption, which reached nearly EUR 100 billion in 2025 (+3.7%). While this confirms the central role of dining culture in Italy, it also reflects inflation-driven value growth rather than a full recovery in demand.
In fact, consumption volumes remain 5.4% below pre-pandemic levels, even though total value has surpassed them by over 15%. The industry is therefore generating more revenue, but not necessarily serving more customers.
Dining habits are also shifting. Lunch is the only occasion seeing growth, driven largely by tourism and leisure. Meanwhile, breakfast and aperitif consumption are declining, with younger consumers—particularly millennials—visiting less frequently. Interestingly, late-night dining is seeing renewed interest from Generation Z, signaling evolving consumption patterns.
Labor Shortages and Productivity Concerns
Employment remains a cornerstone of the sector, with over 1.3 million workers involved. However, workforce numbers declined significantly in 2025, partly due to the increasing difficulty in recruiting qualified personnel.
The issue is not just quantitative but also demographic. While younger workers still represent a large share of the workforce, the aging population is beginning to impact the sector, with older workers becoming relatively more stable compared to other age groups.
At the same time, productivity is emerging as a critical weakness. Using 2013 as a baseline, productivity levels remain below historical benchmarks, and each additional hour worked generates less value than before. This trend raises concerns about long-term sustainability, especially in a sector already struggling with thin margins.
Entrepreneurship: Between Passion and Uncertainty
The report highlights the deeply personal nature of restaurant entrepreneurship in Italy. For many, opening a business is not just an economic decision but a life choice driven by passion, family tradition, and the desire for independence.
Family businesses remain dominant, with over one-third of establishments run within a family structure. These businesses benefit from strong internal support systems but also face challenges in adapting to modern market demands.
Interestingly, while many entrepreneurs see their business as an integral part of their identity, fewer are encouraging generational continuity. Only a small percentage actively wish for their children to take over, reflecting a growing awareness of the sector’s demands and uncertainties.
Investment, Innovation, and the Road Ahead
Investment activity remains active but more selective. Around 42% of businesses have invested or plan to invest between 2025 and 2026, focusing primarily on modernization and efficiency improvements. However, financial caution is increasing, with companies carefully evaluating returns and often relying on internal resources or bank financing.
Innovation—particularly in sustainability and operational efficiency—will be essential for future growth. The sector must adapt not only to economic pressures but also to changing consumer expectations and demographic shifts.
As emphasized by Lino Enrico Stoppani, the Italian restaurant industry continues to play a vital social and cultural role. However, addressing labor shortages, improving productivity, and supporting entrepreneurship through targeted policies will be crucial to ensuring its long-term resilience.
Source: WineNews