In October 2025, the Spanish Interprofessional Wine Organization (OIVE) published its semiannual report on global wine imports and buying trends, offering a detailed analysis of international trade during the first half of the year.
The findings paint a sobering picture of a market in transition — one characterized by declining volumes, uneven regional performance, and increasing polarization between value and premium segments.
A Global Slowdown in Both Value and Volume
Between January and June 2025, the international wine trade totaled EUR 16.7 billion and 4.68 billion liters, reflecting a 2.3% drop in value and a 3.7% decline in volume compared to the same period in 2024. In absolute terms, this represents a loss of EUR 387.7 million and 180.8 million liters.
Although the average price per liter rose slightly to EUR 3.57, this increase was not driven by genuine market improvement but by inflationary pressures and shrinking demand in lower-priced segments. Premium wines continue to show resilience, maintaining consumer interest even as overall consumption declines.
This marks the third consecutive half-year decline in market value since the record highs of 2022. The volume figures are particularly concerning, representing the lowest first-half sales in a decade.
Packaged Wine Drives the Decline
Packaged wine remains the largest segment of the global trade, accounting for 51% of total volume and 68% of total value. Yet, it is also the main contributor to the market’s contraction, with a 3.1% fall in value (EUR 11.3 billion) and a 4.8% drop in volume (2.37 billion liters).
By contrast, sparkling wines, which hold a 10% share in volume and 22% in value, have shown notable resilience — down just 0.3% in value and 0.4% in volume. Bulk wines and alternative packaging formats such as Bag-in-Box suffered sharper drops, while grape must stood out with a 4.3% rise in value despite a significant decline in liters traded.
Market Dynamics: The United States Leads, Europe Fragments
The United States has consolidated its position as the world’s largest wine importer by value, reaching EUR 3.245 billion, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year. However, this growth stems not from higher consumption but from anticipatory purchases made to avoid new tariffs on European wines, implemented in April and August 2025. The U.S. market now commands an average import price of EUR 5.03 per liter, well above the global average.
In Europe, performance varies widely:
- The United Kingdom, the second-largest importer by value and third by volume, has seen one of the sharpest contractions, with a –5.4% fall in value and –6.4% in volume, reflecting persistent inflation and consumer fatigue.
- Germany, in contrast, demonstrates stability, with a –1.1% drop in volume but a +6.9% rise in spending, driven by premiumization and a higher average price (EUR 2/liter).
- Belgium and Sweden emerged as bright spots, posting solid growth in both value and volume — signaling potential opportunities for exporters willing to adapt their offer and storytelling.
In Asia, the situation remains unstable. After a rebound in 2024, China slipped back into decline, losing 1.2% in value and a striking 12.6% in volume. Japan marginally increased its wine spending but purchased slightly fewer liters. Meanwhile, Italy, despite being a leading producer, drastically cut its import volumes by 28.5%, affecting intra-European trade dynamics.
Segment-Specific Trends
By category, sparkling wines remain the most stable, largely thanks to the United States, which boosted imports by +17.2% in value and +16.8% in volume. Without this temporary surge, however, the category would have posted negative growth, particularly due to weakening performance in the UK and other mature markets.
Bottled wines mirrored the overall market slowdown — growing in the U.S. but declining in Canada, Hong Kong, and the Netherlands.
Bulk wines revealed a dual market structure:
- End-consumer markets like the U.S. and UK import bulk for local bottling;
- Producing and re-exporting countries like Germany, France, and Italy use bulk wine as an industrial input.
This structural diversity underscores the need for tailored export and pricing strategies that reflect each country’s consumption and re-export patterns.
A Market in Transition
The OIVE report concludes that the first half of 2025 was defined by global contraction, tariff-related distortions, and an increasingly polarized demand. Mature markets like the UK continue to weaken, while volatility persists in Asia and among producing nations.
Ultimately, the 2025 global wine landscape reveals a fundamental truth: the future of wine trade lies not in volume, but in value, differentiation, and authenticity. Producers who can align quality, storytelling, and market strategy will find growth even in a contracting world.
Source: Vinetur