According to the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine production in 2025 is projected to reach between 228 and 235 million hectoliters, with an intermediate estimate of 232 million hectoliters.
This marks a modest 3% recovery compared to 2024’s historically low output, though the figure remains 7% below the five-year average.
The data indicate that, while volumes are improving, the global wine sector is still operating below its potential. However, given current market dynamics—characterized by high inventories, subdued consumption, and trade uncertainties—this lower-than-average production may contribute to a more balanced global market.
Regional Overview
Europe, with an estimated 140 million hectoliters, continues to dominate global wine production. The continent recorded a slight 2% increase compared to 2024, but remains 8% below the five-year average. The OIV notes that Europe’s vineyards are increasingly exposed to climatic volatility, resulting in contrasting performances among the main producers.
- Italy maintains its position as the world’s largest producer, with 47.4 million hectoliters, representing an 8% increase from 2024 and 2% above its five-year average.
- France follows with 35.9 million hectoliters, a slight 1% decline compared to 2024 and 16% below the five-year average.
- Spain ranks third at 29.4 million hectoliters, marking a 1.4% decrease year-on-year and 15% below the five-year benchmark.
The United States occupies fourth place, with an estimated 21.7 million hectoliters, reflecting a 3% increase over 2024, though still 9% below its five-year average.
Southern Hemisphere Recovery
The Southern Hemisphere contributed approximately 49 million hectoliters, showing a 7% rebound compared to 2024, despite remaining 5% below the five-year average.
This recovery is largely driven by improved conditions in:
- South Africa – 10.2 million hectoliters, +16% compared to 2024
- Australia – 11.6 million hectoliters, +11% and back to fifth place globally
- New Zealand – 3.7 million hectoliters, +32% from 2024 and +15% above its five-year average
- Brazil, which also recorded moderate growth
In contrast, Chile experienced a notable decline, with production down 10%, while Argentina, at 10.7 million hectoliters, saw a marginal 1% decrease but remained South America’s leading wine producer.
Market Implications
Despite regional contrasts, the OIV expects the global wine market to remain balanced. The organization notes that “limited production growth will help stabilize stocks in a context of weakening demand and ongoing trade uncertainty.”
This stabilization could prove beneficial for the global wine economy, allowing producers to manage inventories more efficiently while maintaining pricing stability. With many traditional markets facing consumption declines, controlled production may also encourage renewed interest in premium and terroir-driven wines.
Overall, 2025 reflects a year of cautious optimism—a modest production rebound that offers relief after challenging vintages, but within a broader landscape still shaped by economic pressures, climate variability, and evolving consumer behavior.
Source: WineNews