The year 2024 presented the global wine industry with a paradox: while both production and consumption fell to historic lows, international trade demonstrated resilience.
According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), the market remained dynamic beneath the surface, with product categories and regional shifts shaping a complex landscape.
Production and Consumption at Record Lows
Global wine production fell by 4.8% to 225.8 million hectoliters, the lowest level since the early 1960s. Severe weather events, coupled with disease pressure in key vineyards, undermined yields in both Old and New World regions.
At the same time, global wine consumption declined by 3.3% to 214.2 million hectoliters, also reaching its lowest point in more than six decades. This double decline underscored the structural challenges facing the industry, from climate instability to shifting consumer behavior and tightening alcohol policies.
Trade Resilience Amid Contraction
Despite shrinking production and demand, international trade remained remarkably steady. Export volumes edged up by 0.8% to 100.2 million hectoliters, while export value slipped only 0.5% to EUR 36.04 billion. The average export price per liter decreased by 1.2% to EUR 3.60, suggesting competitive adjustments across categories.
Shifts in Product Categories
- Bulk wine exports surged (+3.9% in volume, +9.3% in value), reflecting greater volatility in production and increased intra-industry trade.
- Bottled wine exports fell 1% in volume, but stable pricing preserved overall value.
- Sparkling wine exports rose slightly in volume (+0.1%) yet lost 3.9% in value, pressured by declining average prices.
- Bag-in-Box wines, a niche format popular in Scandinavia, contracted by nearly 4% in both volume and value.
The rise in bulk wine is particularly tied to climate-induced variability, with countries such as Italy relying more on imports to balance reduced domestic harvests and meet global demand.
Consumer Trends in 2024
Consumer preferences continued to shift, favoring white, sparkling, and low- or no-alcohol wines. White wines proved more resilient, with exports declining less sharply and even gaining in value, while red and rosé wines lost ground. Sparkling wines benefited from changing tastes, though pricing pressures weakened overall performance.
Export Leaders: Different Paths for France, Italy, and Spain
The “big three” exporters—France, Italy, and Spain—accounted for over half of global export volume and nearly two-thirds of value, yet their trajectories diverged:
- Italy: Export value rose 4.7% (EUR 8.14 billion) and volume increased 1.7%, driven by Prosecco and strong positioning in sparkling wines.
- France: Still the leader in export value (EUR 11.7 billion), but sales fell 2.4%, hurt by declining Champagne demand and price drops.
- Spain: Export volume fell 4.5%, but higher prices lifted export value by 1.6%, especially in bulk wine.
New World Exporters: Mixed Results
- Australia rebounded strongly after China lifted tariffs, with export value up over 30% and volume rising nearly 7%.
- Chile achieved double-digit growth in both volume and value, led by demand in the UK, USA, and Brazil.
- USA exports rose more than 15% in volume, driven by strong performance in European markets.
Import Markets: Signs of Recovery and Adjustment
- USA remained the top importer by value, with a modest recovery (+1.6% in value, +0.2% in volume) after previous declines linked to pandemic-era overstocking.
- UK import volumes grew slightly, though overall value dipped amid Brexit-related uncertainty and new alcohol duty rules.
- Germany saw significant contraction (–7% in volume, –9% in value) due to weak domestic demand and reliance on domestic surplus stocks.
- China rebounded as trade barriers eased, while Canada recorded modest growth. In contrast, Japan, Switzerland, Belgium, Sweden, and France experienced declines in import values.
Geopolitical Pressures and Tariff Risks
A major disruption came at the start of 2025, when the U.S. imposed steep tariffs on European wines, initially set at 200% before being partially reduced. This escalation created volatility and uncertainty for exporters reliant on the American market, including France, Italy, Spain, New Zealand, and Argentina.
Outlook: Lessons from Italy and Future Challenges
Italy’s 2024 performance highlights a pathway for success in a difficult market: adaptability to consumer trends, innovation in sparkling and low-alcohol categories, branding strength, and effective regulation through appellation systems.
Going into 2025, stockpiling ahead of tariffs, evolving consumer preferences, and continued climate challenges are expected to shape the sector. Export diversification beyond the U.S. may become a strategic imperative as global trade patterns evolve.
Source: Vinetur