The global bulk wine market entered the summer of 2025 with a notable drop in activity, continuing a trend that began after the pandemic’s surge in retail wine demand subsided.
While July and early August are typically quiet due to Northern Hemisphere summer holidays and harvest preparations, this year’s lull has been more pronounced than usual, hinting at a deeper malaise confirmed by export data from several producing nations.
From Modest Recovery to a Setback
In 2024, some optimism returned to the market. The August 2024 Global Market Report highlighted shorter harvests and renewed Chinese buying interest in Australian wine, helping to stimulate trading. Certain exporters even reported a stronger first half of the year compared to the weak performance of 2023.
However, 2025 has seen the industry slip backward. Many key markets are behaving more like they did in 2023—a year marked by sluggish sales as retailers worked through excess inventory built up during the pandemic. Retail rationalisation of stock-keeping units (SKUs) continues to tighten opportunities for bulk wine, particularly in Europe and North America.
Chile’s Export Story: A Microcosm of the Global Market
Chile exemplifies this reversal. In the first six months of 2024, its total wine exports rose 14%, a rebound from the steep 25% drop in early 2023. Yet, in January–June 2025, exports declined by 5.29%, eroding part of that recovery. Buyers in all major bulk markets have scaled back orders in response to declining retail wine sales, focusing instead on moving existing inventory and streamlining product ranges.
Consumers Under Pressure
Economic factors remain central to the slowdown. A recent Wine Opinions survey in the US found that among 21–39-year-old wine drinkers consuming less than 1–2 years ago, 47% cited rising prices as the primary reason. Similar sentiment likely exists in Europe, where inflation continues to squeeze grocery budgets.
Price competitiveness is another challenge. On a cost-per-alcohol-unit basis, wine is losing ground to beer and spirits, while ready-to-drink beverages (RTDs) are steadily encroaching on wine’s market share. The same survey noted that wine drinkers are disproportionately likely to also consume RTDs, making this segment a particularly strong competitor.
Opportunities Through Innovation
For wine to regain momentum with younger consumers, industry innovation is essential. Formats such as canned wines, wine spritzers, low-ABV styles (below 10% ABV), and high-strength wine-based products could help the category reclaim relevance. The bulk wine sector currently has significant inventory levels, offering entrepreneurs an ideal testing ground for new concepts and product types.
Harvest Season Updates
As the Northern Hemisphere harvests begin, early reports indicate varying conditions across key wine-growing regions:
France
- Harvest: Picking of sparkling bases and early whites underway in southern France.
- Crop Outlook: At least an average-sized crop expected nationwide.
- Market Pressure: Slow sales and recent US tariff hike to 15% have further softened bulk wine prices in southern France.
- Opportunities: Discounted good-quality wines available, including declassified AOP/IGP standard and organic wines, low-alcohol wines, and niche point-of-difference styles. Multi-year deals possible.
- Varietal Availability: Hardest to source are Chardonnay, Viognier, premium rosé, Pinot Noir, and Syrah.
Spain
- Harvest Timing: Picking of generic white grapes and international varietals started a few days to a week later than usual due to a milder July.
- Crop Outlook: National crop expected to be at least in line with the five-year average; strong volumes in La Mancha offsetting smaller crops in other regions.
- Market Availability: Bulk market supply tightened; few or no late-season clean-up deals.
- Tight Supply: Especially limited for 12%+ ABV white generics and 13.5%+ ABV reds.
- Pricing Outlook: New buying campaign expected to start at similar price levels to the end of the previous campaign, assuming forecast harvest volumes materialise.
Italy
- Weather & Harvest Timing: Milder-than-normal July with rain in some regions delayed harvest in much of Italy; northern Puglia and Sicily face drought. Main harvest expected to begin late August.
- Market Activity: Bulk wine market remains slow, particularly for wines heavily dependent on the US export market.
- Inventory Movement: Removal of contracted wines has been sluggish.
- Demand Trends: White wines in stronger demand than reds; Prosecco DOC bottlings grew +5.4% in July; 2024 Pinot Grigio essentially sold out.
California
- Weather & Conditions: July was generally milder, causing some localised mildew issues.
- Central Valley: Conditions largely normal; harvest timing also normal.
- Harvest Outlook: Significant mothballing statewide, especially along the Coast; many uncontracted grapes will go unpicked. A second consecutive sub-3.0-million-ton harvest is likely.
- Market Context: Large inventories and sluggish bulk market persist.
- Opportunities for Buyers: International buyers can secure high-quality wines for mid-tier programmes and standard-quality wines for typical export lines at globally competitive prices. Multi-year deals are available.
Argentina
- Market Activity: Bulk wine market remains quiet.
- Stock Levels: As of 1st July, wine stocks were 2.8% higher than a year ago.
- Pricing: Export prices stable but lower than last year; standard Malbec at USD 0.70–0.80/litre; strong competitiveness in white grape juice concentrate (GJC).
- Currency: Peso weakened to ARS 1,325/USD by 14th August due to internal and external pressures.
- Exports: January–July wine export volumes down 6.9% year-on-year.
- Weather: Cold winter aiding vineyard dormancy.
Chile
- Market Activity: International demand muted; focus on fulfilling already contracted shipments.
- Shipments: Many scheduled for the second half of 2025.
- Stock Levels: All 2025 wines still in stock; generic white in shortest supply.
- Pricing: Export prices stable but may soften if suppliers need tank space.
- Currency: Peso weakened to CLP 960/USD from CLP 930/USD six weeks earlier.
- Weather: Winter rain arrived in July, reducing precipitation deficits and easing drought concerns.
South Africa
- Buying Opportunity: Good time for buyers to secure remaining 2025-vintage volumes; suppliers may be price-flexible to move stock before year-end.
- Availability Outlook: Supply will tighten from October as European buyers return for top-up orders.
- Tight Supply: Pinot Grigio and entry-level Dry White already limited.
- Pricing: Rand export pricing stable and potentially negotiable; Rand stable against EUR and GBP.
- US Shipments: Bottled wine shipments to the US rose in June–July ahead of tariff increase from 10% to 30% effective 7 August.
Australia
- Bulk market quiet, typical for the season.
- Good July rainfall eased drought concerns, but precipitation deficit remains; high temporary water prices may deter growers.
- Wineries unlikely to raise grape prices for 2026 fruit.
- Total export volumes up 3% in the 12 months to June 2025, boosted by China’s restocking post-tariff removal; activity has since slowed.
New Zealand
- Large 2025 crop increasing downward price pressure on 2023 and 2024 Sauvignon Blanc; prices now more competitive with Australia and Chile.
- US import tariff increase to 15% expected to have a costly impact on the wine industry.
The coming months will reveal whether harvest outcomes can help restore momentum in the bulk market—or if 2025 will continue to echo the slow, inventory-heavy environment of two years ago.
Source: Ciatti