The latest Ciatti Global Market Report offers a snapshot of a bulk wine sector at a crossroads, shaped by divergent harvest outcomes, evolving consumer preferences, and persistent economic pressure on traditional wine markets.
Sampling of the Southern Hemisphere’s 2025 vintage is now in full swing, with quality broadly praised. However, activity is largely driven by existing buyers with set programs and tenders, while new entrants to the market remain scarce.
Among producers, Chile and New Zealand stood out for their deviation from average crop sizes—though in opposite directions. Chile’s harvest was significantly reduced, reportedly down 25%, prompting early and aggressive sourcing efforts by both domestic and international players. In contrast, New Zealand experienced a very large harvest, with some fruit left unharvested due to high carryover stocks from previous vintages.
Yet, even with Chile's shortfall, the market continues to lack new international business momentum—a telling sign of prevailing global demand stagnation.
Northern Hemisphere: Stable but Slow
Meanwhile, bulk wine activity in the Northern Hemisphere remains stable but unremarkable. Wineries and buyers are proceeding cautiously, purchasing small volumes on a just-in-time basis, with no signs of major inventory buildup or aggressive sourcing.
A core issue remains: retail wine sales in North America and Europe continue to stagnate or decline. In some countries, this downturn has persisted for up to four years. The result has been SKU rationalisation, with shelf space gradually ceded to alternative beverages such as RTDs (Ready-to-Drink cocktails), spirits, and non-alcoholic offerings.
Consumer Behavior: The Gen Z Challenge
The report highlights the growing disconnect between wine and younger demographics, especially Generation Z, who now comprise all legal-age drinkers under 28. Wine culture appears less relevant to these consumers, many of whom are still mindful of discretionary spending amid lingering post-pandemic inflation.
This sentiment is echoed in the Ciatti California Report, which underscores how value-consciousness is reshaping purchasing behavior—even in traditionally strong wine markets.
Global Consumption in Retreat
The Organisation of Vine & Wine (OIV) estimates that 2024 global wine consumption was 22 million hectolitres lower than in 2019—roughly equivalent to half of Italy’s total crush or California’s entire production. This sharp drop continues to reshape demand dynamics.
Interestingly, the retreat is not just quantitative but qualitative: white wines, rosé, and sparkling wines are increasingly preferred over traditional full-bodied reds. Argentina, for instance, is seeing greater demand from Scandinavian markets for whites and rosés alongside its customary reds.
Parallel to this trend is the rise in interest for low- and no-alcohol wines. These lighter styles—particularly those with 6–10.5% ABV—are gaining traction due to health trends and supportive regulatory environments, like the UK’s new alcohol duty system, which favors lower-alcohol options.
France
- High Inventory: Southern France still holds large bulk stocks despite a 17% smaller 2024 crop.
- Good Availability: Most wine types remain available; Pinot Noir and premium 2024 rosé are limited.
- Low & Negotiable Prices: Prices are attractive and competitive with Spain and Italy, especially for pre-2025 harvest loading.
- Multi-Year Opportunity: Now is a good time to secure excellent price-quality ratio wines, possibly under multi-year terms.
- Emerging Region: Cognac area seen as a promising source for generic white wines if 2025 yields are good.
- Weather Outlook: Hot, humid summer follows a wet spring; vineyard health appears solid.
Spain
- Softening Prices: Bulk wine prices have eased slightly due to slow demand and anticipation of a good-sized 2025 crop.
- Lower Inventory: Total stock is 10% below the five-year average, limiting further downside on pricing.
- Active Buying Recommended: International buyers should secure volumes now while availability remains broad.
- Sulfated Must & GJC: Sulfated must prices have declined, and 2025 grape juice concentrate (GJC) is expected to be price-competitive vs. Italy.
- Demand Picking Up: Lower prices have begun to stimulate demand, reinforcing a likely price floor for the remainder of the year.
Italy
- US Trade Hit: A 10% import tariff and weaker USD have significantly reduced Italian wine exports to the US.
- Slower EU Demand: Key European markets like Germany and the UK are also buying less.
- DOC Bottling Down: Prosecco and Pinot Grigio DOC bottlings fell 6% in May.
- Stable Bulk Pricing: Despite trade headwinds, bulk wine prices remain steady.
- White Wine & GJC Tightening: Supplies of white wine and grape juice concentrate are expected to be limited by harvest 2025.
- Red Wine Abundant: Domestic and export red wine demand is slow, keeping supply plentiful.
- Good Vineyard Conditions: Vines are in good shape overall, though drought concerns persist in Puglia and Sicily.
California
- Price Floor Easing: The previous USD 2.00/gallon floor is softening as harvest nears.
- Competitive Pricing: Prices align with 'California' appellation levels, except for some premium Coastal wines.
- Export Opportunities: Attractive conditions for international buyers seeking mid-tier or standard-quality wines.
- Multi-Year Contracts: Available for buyers looking to secure supply beyond 2025.
- Low & No-Alcohol Options: Growing category now included in California's bulk offering.
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Good Crop Potential: 2025 yields look promising, though volume may be curbed due to:
- Vineyard Mothballing: Ongoing due to low grape demand.
- Bunch Thinning: Used to balance supply and avoid surpluses.
Argentina
- 2025 Harvest: 1.98 million metric tons — in line with long-term average.
- High Supply Levels: Over 1.0 billion litres produced + ~630 million litres carryover (as of June).
- Stable & Negotiable Prices: Prices are steady vs. last month and lower than a year ago.
- Globally Competitive: Strong pricing position for generic white/red wines and white grape juice concentrate (GJC).
- Shifting Demand: Growing interest in lower-alcohol wines (including Malbec), whites, and rosés.
- Currency Stability: Peso holding around ARS 1,200/USD after April's removal of currency controls.
Chile
- 2025 Harvest Down: Crush estimated 25% below average, tightening supply.
- Elevated, Stable Prices: Prices remain high and are expected to stay firm or rise as inventories decline.
- Stock Levels: All wines and grape juice concentrates (GJCs) available, but generic and varietal whites are already tight.
- Supply Prioritisation: Longstanding buyers are receiving first access to available volumes.
- Strong Sampling Activity: Domestic and international buyers actively approving samples.
- Currency Stable: Chilean peso steady at ~CLP 940/USD since May.
- Future Uncertainty: Vineyard removals and rainfall deficit cast doubt over 2026 crop potential.
South Africa
- Larger 2025 Harvest: Vintage is 11% bigger than 2024 and of excellent quality.
- Broad Availability: All generic and varietal wines, including varietal rosés, are available; Pinot Grigio is tightest.
- Stable Local Pricing: Rand-based prices have held steady since Feb/March.
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Currency Movements:
- Weaker Rand vs. euro and pound (year-on-year)
- Slightly stronger vs. US dollar
- Steady Demand: Mainly from established buyers and tenders; US demand slowed by tariff uncertainty.
- Sampling & Loadings: Proceeding smoothly and efficiently.
Australia
- Quiet Market: Bulk activity subdued as 2025 vintage sampling begins.
- Good Entry-Level Supply: 2025 white wines are widely available at entry-level.
- TWE Outlook Down: Treasury Wine Estates lowered its EBIT forecast due to US market headwinds.
- Industry Consolidation: Vinarchy (Accolade + Pernod Ricard wine assets) is streamlining operations and shifting focus toward premium and sparkling wines.
New Zealand
- Large 2025 Crop Expected: Strong harvest anticipated, adding to available supply.
- Softer Prices: 2023 and 2024 stock now discounted, especially for Sauvignon Blanc.
- Red Wines Recognised: New Zealand reds earned strong results at the 2025 International Wine Challenge, adding appeal beyond Sauvignon Blanc.
Looking Ahead: Hope for Recovery in 2026
As summer unfolds across the Northern Hemisphere, vineyards are reportedly in generally healthy condition. But economics, not climate, may dictate the final crop sizes. Some growers are reducing vineyard treatments due to cashflow constraints, while bunch-thinning in California is a strategic response to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance.
All eyes are now on the late-season reds of the 2025 vintage, due in early 2026. The hope is that by then, retail sales will rebound and give the bulk market the push it needs. With consumer-friendly prices and strong quality offerings, the fundamentals are in place—waiting only for demand to catch up.
Source: Ciatti Global Market Report, July 2025