The global beverage alcohol industry is poised for long-term value growth, with IWSR projecting a USD 34 billion increase in the value of core markets between 2024 and 2034.
Despite a challenging 2024 — marked by a -1% decline in total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes — value still rose by USD 8.5 billion, underscoring a broader shift in consumer behavior: drinking less, but spending more.
Shifting Growth Momentum: From Developed to Developing Markets
According to IWSR’s latest 10-year forecasts, global beverage alcohol value will grow by 3% across the top 31 markets by 2034, with a USD 16 billion increase expected between 2024 and 2029. However, this steady growth hides a major realignment in the global market: developing countries are becoming the new engines of expansion.
India, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa are set to account for USD 28 billion of the projected value growth, with India alone contributing nearly half. In contrast, key developed markets such as the US, UK, and Germany are forecast to contract by USD 6 billion. The decline in China — previously a high-growth giant — is also notable, attributed to demographic shifts and a downturn in lower-priced spirits and beer.
India’s Rise: The New Growth Powerhouse
India stood out in 2024, growing 6% in volume and 9% in value. Beer and whisky were primary drivers, but growth extended across all major categories. By 2027, India is expected to overtake France to become the largest market for Scotch whisky and, by 2032, the third most valuable TBA market globally, behind only the US and China.
India’s young, expanding population, rising disposable incomes, and increasing appetite for premium brands make it the standout opportunity for global producers.
Spirits & Beer: Opportunities Amid Shifting Tastes
Across the top 31 markets, spirits are forecast to remain stable in volume, but categories like Tequila and spirit aperitifs are set to grow strongly. Tequila, in particular, will expand at a 3% CAGR in value and 2% in volume outside Mexico, driven largely by the US. Meanwhile, Scotch whisky is forecast to grow 4% annually in Türkiye and maintain strong momentum in India.
Beer, although flat in overall volume, shows promise in specific segments. No-alcohol beer is experiencing a surge, with the US and Brazil leading growth. Premium and super-premium beers are thriving even in saturated or declining markets, such as China and the UK, reflecting the lasting power of the premiumisation trend.
Premiumisation and the Rise of “Less but Better”
Consumers continue to shift toward higher-value products, even as overall consumption moderates. Premium beer is growing across regions, while RTDs are evolving beyond hard seltzers into more sophisticated offerings. In the US and China, premium segments are the only ones showing growth, and in Brazil and the UK, they are offsetting broader category declines.
Tequila remains a major driver of premiumisation, particularly in the US, with high-end variants seeing the strongest gains. However, not all categories are benefiting — vodka is seeing signs of downtrading in both volume and value.
Wine: The Outlier in Decline
Wine is the only major beverage category expected to decline in volume over the next decade, with a projected CAGR of -1%. While value growth through premium pricing is still possible, structural declines in consumption remain a concern. Notably, even traditional wine markets like Germany and the US are seeing persistent volume declines, with only premium-plus segments in niche regions (e.g., Portugal) bucking the trend.
Strategic Takeaways for Industry Stakeholders
The biggest challenge for producers will be resource allocation — managing shrinking legacy markets while investing in dynamic, high-growth regions. Companies that successfully balance this dual focus — leveraging opportunities in markets like India, Brazil, and Türkiye while protecting market share in developed economies — will be best positioned for long-term success.
Innovation, targeted premiumisation, and geographic diversification will be key. As the IWSR forecasts highlight, growth is no longer evenly distributed. Instead, it favors agility, strategy, and a willingness to embrace new consumption patterns and emerging markets.
Source: IWSR