The global brandy market is moving at two very different speeds in 2026.
Broad-based, affordable brands in countries like India, the Philippines, and Brazil continue to post strong demand, while cognac — historically the category's biggest value driver — is still working through an inventory correction triggered by pandemic-era overstocking, softening luxury demand in China and the United States, and ongoing trade tensions.
Sizing a Fragmented Market
Estimating the brandy business is harder than it sounds, and the published figures show why. Grand View Research puts 2026 at $26.9 billion, growing to $35.2 billion by 2030 at a 6.8% compound annual rate. Other consultancies that focus specifically on cognac and premium brandy put this year's figure much lower, between $14.9 billion and $15.6 billion. The gap comes down to methodology — which products, channels, and price tiers each estimate includes — so cross-comparing these numbers requires caution.
Volume is just as difficult to pin down precisely, but the best available estimate places 2026 global brandy volume around 169 million nine-liter cases, or 1.52 billion liters. The divergence between mass and premium shows clearly in the 2025 numbers: overall brandy sales fell just 1%, while cognac sales alone dropped 16.2% — evidence that the weakness is concentrated almost entirely at the top of the price ladder.
Cognac's Post-Pandemic Correction
Cognac's boom-and-bust cycle since 2020 illustrates the scale of the adjustment. Shipments peaked at 212.5 million bottles in 2022, driven by domestic consumption, a gifting rebound, and market reopenings. Since then, volumes have fallen steadily: 165.3 million bottles in 2023, roughly 166 million in 2024, and 141 million in 2025, with total sales of €2.24 billion. There are early signs of stabilization — Rémy Cointreau reported 7.7% organic growth in cognac during its first fiscal quarter of 2026, helped by Asia-Pacific demand outside China — but the company itself describes this as encouraging rather than proof of a full recovery.
Supply constraints add another layer of complexity. The International Organisation of Vine and Wine estimates the global vineyard area fell to seven million hectares by 2025, with wine production of 227 million hectoliters, 13% below the decade average. Early estimates for the 2026 Southern Hemisphere harvest point to a further 3.1% decline. Extreme weather, vineyard reduction, and demand-driven production adjustments are all tightening the raw-material base that brandy and cognac depend on.
Trade Flows Reveal a Two-Tier Business
Foreign trade data captures just how differently mass-market and premium brandy behave. In 2024, China imported wine and pomace spirits worth $1.2336 billion across 35 million liters — an average price of $35.2 per liter. Compare that with the Philippines, which imported 69.6 million liters for $123.8 million, or just $1.8 per liter. The UK ($135 million, six million liters), Canada ($66.9 million, three million liters), Japan (around $24.7 per liter), and the UAE (around $22.8 per liter) round out a picture of markets valuing very different price points for essentially the same broad category.
France remains the center of the highest value-added trade, exporting $3.435 billion worth of cognac and other wine spirits in 2024, underpinned by Cognac's status as a protected geographical indication, its deep aging inventories, and decades of commercial infrastructure. Spain holds its own with Brandy de Jerez and a global commercial footprint; Armenia maintains its own tradition; and Brazil, India, and the Philippines contribute large domestic volumes without competing directly on France's terms.
Asia-Pacific: Volume Leader and Weak Point in the Same Region
Asia-Pacific embodies both extremes of the brandy business. India is one of the largest markets by case volume, with strong domestic producers: Radico Khaitan's Old Admiral reached 10.9 million cases in 2025, Tilaknagar Industries' Mansion House grew 23.4% to 9.7 million cases, and McDowell's Brandy climbed to 1.6 million cases. In the Philippines, Emperador holds a dominant position in the domestic market.
China sits at the opposite pole. It concentrates the category's imported value and its aspirational, gift-driven consumption, but has lost momentum amid economic caution, softening luxury demand, and new trade measures targeting European imports.
Bright Spots in Brazil and the Americas
Brazil shows what accessible, well-distributed brandy can achieve: Campari-owned Dreher sold nearly 3.5 million cases in 2025, up 16.7% year-over-year. Mexico's 2024 imports reached $38.6 million across 5.7 million liters, averaging $6.8 per liter, with a strong Spanish presence. In Africa, South Africa has an established production base, while Nigeria and Angola represent potential growth markets for mid-priced brandy, contingent on taxation and distribution conditions improving.
The United States remains North America's leading market and a significant influence on pricing and cocktail culture. Combined brandy and cognac volume reached 11.7 million cases and $2.1 billion in 2024. Since 2003, total volume has grown 15%, but the super-premium segment has nearly tripled — a trend that helps explain why major producers continue protecting their higher-margin lines even as the broader luxury cycle cools.
Where Brandy Is Actually Sold
Distribution data underscores how central home consumption is to the category: grocery stores, liquor stores, convenience stores, and other takeaway outlets accounted for roughly 73.9% of the market in 2023. Bars, restaurants, and hotels punch above their sales share because they shape brand reputation and introduce cocktail culture to new drinkers. Torres Brandy was named the best-selling brandy in international bars surveyed by Drinks International for the seventh consecutive year, while Rémy Martin led among cognacs in just over 30% of the same establishments.
E-commerce has cooled somewhat since its pandemic peak but remains an important discovery and purchase channel, with IWSR forecasting that online alcohol sales will top $36 billion by 2028. Airport retail is also recovering, led by India, the Middle East, and several European routes, with forecasts of 5% annual volume growth and 7% value growth between 2023 and 2028, driven by gift sets, exclusive editions, and miniatures.
A More Selective Younger Consumer
Generational shifts are reshaping how the category needs to sell itself. IWSR data shows the average number of beverage types consumed by Generation Z fell from 2.8 to 1.8 within two years. For brandy, that narrowing means brands need to work harder to explain origin, aging, cocktail versatility, and the rationale behind premium pricing if they want to hold onto younger drinkers.
Brand Performance and Consolidation
Publicly available brand data reflects a fragmented category. Old Admiral and Mansion House lead by volume among firms reporting comparable figures. Hennessy sold 5.8 million cases in 2025 after a 7.6% decline — a volume level similar to Shustoff, which grew 39.9%. Emperador remained the top brand by sales value in 2024, though it did not disclose figures directly comparable to its rivals.
Strategic moves point to portfolios broadening in search of new occasions and markets. Campari completed its acquisition of Courvoisier in 2024, adding a historic cognac house alongside Dreher. Bacardi entered the Indian brandy market with Good Man, a French-Indian blend aged at least two years in oak. Hennessy has launched its first ready-to-serve line, Very Special Cocktails. In Jerez, the traditional solera blending system continues to give producers a distinct edge in consistency across vintages.
Sustainability and Regulatory Pressure
Sustainability is becoming a more visible differentiator, particularly in hospitality. Familia Torres has committed to cutting carbon dioxide emissions per bottle by 60% by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality before 2040, reinforced through its Torres Brandy Zero Challenge program aimed at bars and restaurants. Martell, meanwhile, is developing new grape varieties better suited to warmer, drier summers affecting Ugni Blanc, the primary grape used in cognac production.
Regulation continues to add uncertainty. The European Union protects designations like Cognac and Brandy de Jerez through strict definition, presentation, and labeling rules. In China, an antidumping investigation opened in January concluded this July with tariffs of up to 34.9% for five years, though several major producers secured an alternative arrangement tied to minimum pricing — a measure that hits France particularly hard and is pushing producers to diversify toward other markets. In India, tariffs and state-level taxes continue to favor local production and joint ventures over imports.
Aging Inventory: Both an Asset and a Risk
Aging inventory sits at the heart of the category's economics. Decades of accumulated reserve can support premium pricing and enable complex, hard-to-replicate blends — Emperador, for instance, gained stock over 50 years old through its acquisition of former Spanish assets from Beam Suntory. But that same inventory ties up significant capital and becomes a liability when demand softens, a dynamic French producers are currently experiencing as sales in China decline.
Outlook to 2030
The central forecast for 2030 points to a market of roughly $35 billion and 176 million nine-liter cases, contingent on a partial recovery in China, steady progress in the United States, stable retail demand, and growth in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and travel retail. A stronger scenario could push value to $37.3 billion and volume to 183 million cases. A weaker one — shaped by prolonged tariffs, continued softness in luxury spending, and agricultural setbacks — would leave the market closer to $30.9 billion and 166 million cases.
No More One-Size-Fits-All Strategy
The brandy category has effectively split into distinct regional playbooks. China requires price protection and inventory discipline; India and the Philippines reward local production scale and wide distribution; Brazil favors familiar, affordable brands; the UK, Canada, Japan, and the UAE offer more favorable conditions for premium imports. Cognac is no longer the sole engine of category growth — the path forward increasingly runs through strong domestic markets, local brands, protected geographical indications, ready-to-serve formats, and consumers who want a clearer story behind what they're drinking and why it's worth the price.
Source: Vinetur