The National Institute of Viticulture (INV) of Argentina has released the official production figures for the 2024-2025 wine season, revealing a cautiously stable panorama for the country’s wine industry, tempered by a growing diversification trend and a notable dip in bulk wine prices.
Key Production Insights
Wineries processed 1.95 billion kilos of grapes during the 2024-2025 harvest. From this yield, the industry produced:
- 1.058 billion liters of wine, and
- 405 million liters of must, a non-fermented grape product often used in juice, vinegar, and concentrate production.
This must volume represents 26% of the total harvest, the highest diversification level in the last five years, signaling a strategic shift by producers to reduce dependence on wine production alone. Additionally, 615 million liters of wine from previous harvests remain in storage, bringing the total wine availability to 1.673 billion liters.
After subtracting wine designated for industrial use (e.g., vinegar and alcohol), the adjusted wine stock available for consumption and export stands at 1.6 billion liters.
Domestic vs. Export Trends
Domestic consumption remains dominant, accounting for around 80% of wine sales, while 20% is exported in varying formats—bottled, boxed, or bulk. Projections for the full 2024/25 cycle suggest total wine sales will reach approximately 965 million liters.
Looking ahead, if demand grows by 3.5%, the adjusted wine stock for June 2026 is expected to be 600 million liters, equivalent to 7.5 months of sales—a 1.5% decrease from the previous year, suggesting a manageable and stable stock situation.
Price Pressures in Bulk Wine Market
Despite the production stability, bulk wine prices are under significant pressure. As reported by the Mendoza Stock Exchange SA:
- Prices dropped 30% in real terms in May 2025 compared to May 2024.
- Since the critical frost period of November 2024, prices have declined by 15%.
Industry analysts attribute this trend to three primary factors:
- Stable stock levels (comparable to last year),
- Interest rates that are steady or slightly decreasing, and
- Lower inflation expectations, which reduce future pricing speculation.
According to projections, bulk wine is currently undervalued by at least 15%, based on historical pricing models tied to these variables. Any unforeseen weather or disease-related disruptions in the next harvest could further skew this balance by tightening supply.
Conclusion
While Argentina’s wine sector continues to show signs of resilience and cautious adaptation, particularly through its strategic pivot toward must production and steady domestic demand, it is grappling with price instability—especially in the bulk wine segment. For now, the industry seems to be navigating a stable path, but all eyes are on future demand trends and the 2025-2026 harvest, which could redefine market dynamics once again.
Source: Vinetur