As the 2025 vintage cycle progresses, the global bulk wine market finds itself navigating a complex mix of harvest variability, economic headwinds, and evolving consumer preferences.
The latest update from the Ciatti Company offers an in-depth look at the Southern Hemisphere's harvest outcomes, Northern Hemisphere vineyard conditions, and the geopolitical factors reshaping international trade in wine.
Northern Hemisphere Outlook: Spring Cautious but Promising
While spring weather in March brought challenges, particularly in parts of Europe, the vineyards of France, Italy, and Spain have emerged in solid condition, raising cautious optimism for the 2025 crop.
France:
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Vin de France (VDF) is leading bulk market activity in southern France.
- Pricing is at a 10-year low and highly competitive due to Spain’s price increases.
- VDF includes a wide quality range, from entry-level non-vintage wines to declassified IGP wines (e.g., 14% alcohol reds).
- Cognac Region: May supply entry-level wines long-term, as brandy production is now capped.
- Low demand for IGP wines, except Pinot Noir.
- Rosé market is slow, affected by poor spring weather in Europe.
- Rising interest in low and non-alcohol wines.
- The new 10% US import tariff is a concern for Champagne and bottled wines, causing further buying hesitancy in the bulk market.
Spain:
- Generic white and rosé pricing has softened slightly following a very wet March, which improved confidence in the 2025 crop potential.
- Generic red pricing has risen modestly from a low base due to limited demand.
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International varietal market trends:
- White and rosé pricing softened
- Red pricing remains firm
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Tariff uncertainty has caused:
- Slower domestic interest in wine imports
- Reduced buyer interest overall
- While Spain is less directly exposed to new US tariffs than France or Italy, it faces indirect risks if EU wine demand contracts.
- The sulfated must market remains paused due to elevated pricing.
Italy:
- Italy is highly exposed to the 10% US import tariffs, raising fears of a potentially fatal impact on already vulnerable businesses, particularly those reliant on the US export market.
- Exports to the US increased 20–30% between November and March, as businesses tried to get ahead of the tariffs.
- It is hoped the tariffs will be suspended before these pre-shipped supplies are fully sold.
- Despite the uncertainty:
- Prosecco bottlings were up 6%
- Pinot Grigio DOC bottlings rose 2% in March
- These positive signs give hope for ongoing supply-demand balance, if Italy's crop recovers after two consecutive short harvests.
California:
- Market Slowdown: California’s bulk wine market has slowed recently due to disappointing Q1 retail sales and economic uncertainty linked to new US tariff announcements.
- High Inventory Levels: There is significant inventory, contributing to stable but lower pricing, generally aligned with 'California' appellation levels, except for a few specific Coastal wines.
- Increased Price Competitiveness: California wines are now more attractive for ‘American’ wine programmes, thanks to their value-for-money proposition.
- Export Opportunity: International buyers can take advantage of mid-tier bulk wine offerings with strong price-quality ratios.
- Flexible Deals Available: Multi-year contracts are being offered, encouraging longer-term partnerships.
Southern Hemisphere Harvest Wrap-Up: Mixed Outcomes
The Southern Hemisphere harvests are now largely complete, and the picture across regions is uneven:
Argentina:
- Harvest Outlook: The 2025 harvest is on track to reach 2.09 million metric tons, adding to an already significant carryover stock.
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Pricing Pressure: The combined supply is placing downward pressure on bulk wine prices:
- Standard Malbec is at USD 0.75/litre, down from USD 0.90/litre a year ago.
- Prices across various wines are softening and negotiable.
- Competitive Availability: There is strong availability of generic whites and white grape juice concentrate (GJC) at globally competitive prices.
- Improved Vintage Quality: The average alcohol level has returned to 13–13.5%, a recovery from last year's lower levels.
- Economic Policy Shift: A new USD 20 billion IMF loan led the government to lift currency controls, resulting in an immediate 10% devaluation of the peso upon resuming free trading.
Chile:
- Short Crop: The 2025 harvest is estimated to be 25% below average, leading to increased grape and wine prices.
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Market Activity:
- Buyer demand surged from March, intensifying in April as the crop shortfall became evident.
- Supplies are expected to move quickly; buyers should act promptly to secure volumes.
- Product Range: Low and zero-alcohol wines are available from Chile.
- Tariff Update: Chilean wines now face a 10% import tariff in the US, consistent with other wine-exporting countries.
South Africa:
- 2025 harvest estimated at 1.18 million tons, a 6% increase from 2024, and in line with expectations.
- Quality is excellent across the board.
- Good availability on all varietal wines, including Pinotage and Cinsault rosés.
- Chenin Blanc supply is tight due to strong domestic demand for Dry White.
- Export pricing in Rand is stable, but the Rand has weakened significantly against the euro and US dollar.
- Suppliers are open to contracting and price negotiation.
- The US import tariff, initially set at 30%, has been revised to 10% until at least 9th July 2025.
Australia:
- The 2025 harvest is winding down with good quality thanks to favorable conditions.
- Bulk wine inventories remain a concern, prompting some red grape volumes to be left unpicked to manage oversupply.
- Now subject to a 10% US import tariff, after previously benefiting from zero or minimal duties.
- The US is Australia’s third-largest wine export market by value.
New Zealand:
- Harvest is ongoing, with some rain, but it could be large.
- Some grapes may go unpicked due to high inventory levels.
- Marlborough and NZ GI Sauvignon Blanc remains available at competitive pricing.
- Now also subject to the 10% US import tariff.
- The US is New Zealand’s largest export market for wine.
Bulk Market Activity: Cautious and Uneven
Across the globe, the bulk wine market remains slow but steady. Buyers are taking their time to:
- Assess 2025 availability from the Southern Hemisphere
- Request samples to gauge quality
- Monitor spring frost risks in Northern Hemisphere vineyards
Global market hesitancy is amplified by poor Q1 retail performance, which has undermined confidence, particularly in key import markets such as the US and parts of Europe. The lingering post-pandemic demand slump continues to shape buying behavior.
Tariffs Shake Confidence: A Level Playing Field – For Now
One of the most significant developments affecting wine trade in April is the introduction of a 10% US import tariff on all wines, irrespective of origin or pre-existing trade agreements. While this creates a temporary level playing field, it’s hardly a cause for celebration.
- Higher tariffs—initially threatened on EU and South African wines—have been suspended for three months, but uncertainty remains high.
- The market is bracing for further adjustments to tariff policy in the months ahead.
- These developments have added yet another layer of volatility to a market already dealing with economic turbulence and shifting demand.
See this month's Tariff Update for the latest status and anticipated impacts.
Bright Spots: Chilean Interest & French Entry-Level Demand
Despite global sluggishness, a few hotspots have emerged:
- Chile is experiencing a sharp uptick in demand due to its short harvest and lack of carryover. While pricing has firmed, buyers appear willing to engage.
- Southern French Vin de France wines are gaining attention as a price-sensitive alternative to high-priced Spanish generics, especially in entry-level categories.
Low & No-Alcohol Wines: Innovation That’s Sticking
Perhaps the most consistent and growing area of buyer interest is the low and no-alcohol category. According to the France page of the report, these wines are now drawing more sustained interest than other recent trends, such as:
- Orange wines
- Natural wines
- Light-bodied reds
This marks a turning point in how innovation is perceived in the bulk market—not as niche curiosities, but as core commercial opportunities. Producers and exporters are responding accordingly, looking to expand offerings in this segment.
Conclusion: A Global Market in a Balancing Act
The global bulk wine trade enters the second quarter of 2025 with cautious optimism tempered by economic and political headwinds. While harvest outcomes are mixed, the industry is adapting, exploring new innovations and shifting strategies to remain competitive.
The path forward may be uncertain, but one thing is clear: flexibility, foresight, and responsiveness to changing demand will be key to navigating the months ahead.
Source: Ciatti